Worldwide Rebound Effects: A Multiregional Input–Output Analysis

Rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements have been widely studied over the past decades across different resources and regions using different approaches and data. This diversity has hindered comparability among studies. To date, no single study has globally estimated these effects within a common framework. This paper addresses this gap by providing estimates of direct and indirect rebound effects in 43 countries and five aggregated "rest of the world" regions using an Environmentally Extended Multiregional Input–Output (EEMRIO) model, which covers all the world. This comprehensive, data-consistent approach effectively captures spillover effects through interregional economic flows that have been overlooked in previous studies. Moreover, it improves result comparability and offers insights for previously unexamined regions. Our findings indicate that in most countries, increased energy use due to households' re-consumption surpasses expected energy savings from efficiency improvements. When the efficiencies of coal, fuel, gas, electricity and all types of energy combined improve, the proportion of countries experiencing backfire (where the rebound effect exceeds 100%) is 81.25%, 56.25%, 68.75%, 56.25% and 56.25% respectively. These results highlight the critical need to control high rebound effects to achieve reductions in global energy consumption.