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La meta del Banco Central y la persistencia de la inflación en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Norberto Rodríguez
  • Luis Eduardo Rojas

Abstract

En este documento se estima un modelo econométrico que descompone la serie de inflación trimestral anualizada entre un componente transitorio y otro permanente, este último inducido probablemente por las variaciones en la meta del Banco Central. Se concluye que la persistencia inflacionaria se elevó en Colombia entre 1979-1989 y 1989-1999, y se redujo a sus menores niveles en 1999-2010, gracias a la adopción del régimen de inflación objetivo. También se concluye que la brecha de la inflación presenta baja persistencia, un resultado consistente con la Curva de Phillips Neo-Keynesiana. La parte final del documento evalúa la persistencia de los diferentes componentes de la inflación utilizados por el Banco de la República en sus pronósticos.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Norberto Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "La meta del Banco Central y la persistencia de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 633, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:633
    DOI: 10.32468/be.633
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    4. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    3. Andres Sanchez-Jabba & Erick Villabon-Hinestroz & Bernardo Romero-Torres, 2023. "Inflation Expectations Measurement and its Effect on Inflation Dynamics in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1257, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa Pérez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," Vniversitas Económica 8860, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    5. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:97-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Esther Barros-Campello & Carlos Pateiro-Rodríguez & J. Venancio Salcines-Cristal & Carlos Pateiro-López, 2017. "El esquema de objetivos de inflación: Evidencia para América Latina (1999-2015)," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2 Year 20), pages 223-250, December.
    7. Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe & Posada, Carlos Esteban, 2012. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia : Nairu y tasa de desempleo compatible con la meta de inflación (1984-2010)," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 8, pages 333-362, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Sergio Iván Prada & Julio C. Alonso & Julián Fernández, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into consumer healthcare prices in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 523-550, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; Persistencia de la Inflación; Modelos de Cambio de Régimen; Meta del Banco Central; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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