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Tasa de cambio y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia Durante la Última Década

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  • Juan José Echavarría
  • María Angélica Arbelaéz

Abstract

Este documento utiliza el modelo sugerido por Bleakley & Cowan (2002) para analizar el impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la inversión, las ventas y las utilidades de las empresas colombianas en el período 1994- 2002. Se encuentra un impacto claramente positivo. Tres factores explican la respuesta favorable a la tasa de cambio: la respuesta de los exportadores e importadores es alta y rápida en Colombia (fuertes efectos competitividad); el nivel de deuda externa es mucho menor que en otros países de la región y ha descendido en los últimos años; , y existe un calce entre actividad y deuda (se endeudan más las firmas exportadoras y las multinacionales). El stock de capital inicial se corrige con base en la metodología sugerida por Harberger (1969), y la información sobre deuda externa se mejora sensiblemente al utilizar los información interna del Banco de la República. Se utiliza la técnica econométrica sugerida por Arellano & Bover (1995), apropiada cuando el número de años es corto y la persistencia de la variable dependiente es alta, pero también se reportan los resultados con la metodología sugerida por Arellano & Bond (1991). Los resultados de ambas metodologías resultan consistentes, en parte por que el nivel de persistencia observado para la variable dependiente resulta relativamente baja.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & María Angélica Arbelaéz, 2005. "Tasa de cambio y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia Durante la Última Década," Borradores de Economia 338, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:338
    DOI: 10.32468/be.338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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