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Tasa de cambio y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia Durante la Última Década

  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • María Angélica Arbelaéz

Este documento utiliza el modelo sugerido por Bleakley & Cowan (2002) para analizar el impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la inversión, las ventas y las utilidades de las empresas colombianas en el período 1994- 2002. Se encuentra un impacto claramente positivo. Tres factores explican la respuesta favorable a la tasa de cambio: la respuesta de los exportadores e importadores es alta y rápida en Colombia (fuertes efectos competitividad); el nivel de deuda externa es mucho menor que en otros países de la región y ha descendido en los últimos años; , y existe un calce entre actividad y deuda (se endeudan más las firmas exportadoras y las multinacionales). El stock de capital inicial se corrige con base en la metodología sugerida por Harberger (1969), y la información sobre deuda externa se mejora sensiblemente al utilizar los información interna del Banco de la República. Se utiliza la técnica econométrica sugerida por Arellano & Bover (1995), apropiada cuando el número de años es corto y la persistencia de la variable dependiente es alta, pero también se reportan los resultados con la metodología sugerida por Arellano & Bond (1991). Los resultados de ambas metodologías resultan consistentes, en parte por que el nivel de persistencia observado para la variable dependiente resulta relativamente baja.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 338.

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  1. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  4. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998. "Investment, Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Working Papers 6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S & Carey, Kevin, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 853-83, August.
  7. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  10. Leonardo Villar, 1985. "Determinantes de las importaciones en Colombia: un análisis econométrico," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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