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Tasa de cambio y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia Durante la Última Década

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • María Angélica Arbelaéz

Abstract

Este documento utiliza el modelo sugerido por Bleakley & Cowan (2002) para analizar el impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la inversión, las ventas y las utilidades de las empresas colombianas en el período 1994- 2002. Se encuentra un impacto claramente positivo. Tres factores explican la respuesta favorable a la tasa de cambio: la respuesta de los exportadores e importadores es alta y rápida en Colombia (fuertes efectos competitividad); el nivel de deuda externa es mucho menor que en otros países de la región y ha descendido en los últimos años; , y existe un calce entre actividad y deuda (se endeudan más las firmas exportadoras y las multinacionales). El stock de capital inicial se corrige con base en la metodología sugerida por Harberger (1969), y la información sobre deuda externa se mejora sensiblemente al utilizar los información interna del Banco de la República. Se utiliza la técnica econométrica sugerida por Arellano & Bover (1995), apropiada cuando el número de años es corto y la persistencia de la variable dependiente es alta, pero también se reportan los resultados con la metodología sugerida por Arellano & Bond (1991). Los resultados de ambas metodologías resultan consistentes, en parte por que el nivel de persistencia observado para la variable dependiente resulta relativamente baja.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & María Angélica Arbelaéz, 2005. "Tasa de cambio y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia Durante la Última Década," Borradores de Economia 338, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    2. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. José Antonio Ocampo & Juan Luis Londoño & Leonardo Villar, 1985. "Ahorro e inversión en Colombia," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, vol. 15(2), pages 93-141, June.
    5. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    8. Israel Fainboim, 1990. "Inversión, tributación y costo de uso del capital en Colombia: 1950-1987," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 9(18), pages 7-50, Diciembre.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Kevin Carey, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 5439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Kevin Carey, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 853-883.
    12. Leonardo Villar, 1985. "Determinantes de las importaciones en Colombia: un análisis econométrico," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 4(8), pages 61-100, December.
    13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    14. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913, April.
    2. Ana María Iregui B. & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Carmen Cecilia Delgado R., 2013. "El efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011106, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez, 2013. "Efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 801, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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