IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1244_19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shifting taxes from labour to consumption: the efficiency-equity trade-off

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Curci

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Savegnago

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We assess how a tax shift from labour to consumption affects the Italian tax-benefit system in terms of the efficiency-equity trade-off. We designed three budget-neutral scenarios, where the revenues generated by increasing VAT rates are used to finance some alternative cuts in direct taxes. In all the scenarios, the trade-off is confirmed: efficiency increases but equity decreases. However, the scenario best positioned in the trade-off is the one providing an increase in labour income tax credits: in this case, the increase in efficiency is the highest and the decrease in equity is the lowest. We also account for the distribution of winners and losers following this reform. We show that, even if the losers are mostly concentrated in the lowest part of the equivalent income distribution, the recently introduced minimum income schemes provide these households with a benefit that is much higher than the loss generated by the tax shift.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago, 2019. "Shifting taxes from labour to consumption: the efficiency-equity trade-off," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1244, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1244_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2019/2019-1244/en_tema_1244.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruud de Mooij & Michael Keen, 2012. ""Fiscal Devaluation" and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 443-485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago & Marika Cioffi, 2017. "BIMic: the Bank of Italy microsimulation model for the Italian tax and benefit system," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 394, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Michal Andrle & Shafik Hebous & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 385-420, April.
    4. André Decoster & Jason Loughrey & Cathal O'Donoghue & Dirk Verwerft, 2010. "How regressive are indirect taxes? A microsimulation analysis for five European countries," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 326-350.
    5. Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 542-563, September.
    6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David Rapson, 2007. "Does It Pay, at the Margin, to Work and Save? Measuring Effective Marginal Taxes on Americans' Labor Supply and Saving," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 21, pages 83-144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2014. "A General Microsimulation Model for the EU VAT with a specific Application to Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 40-93.
    8. Francesca Gastaldi & Paolo Liberati & Elena Pisano & Simone Tedeschi, 2014. "Progressivity-Improving VAT Reforms in Italy," Working papers 6, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    9. Nicola Curci & Giuseppe Grasso & Pasquale Recchia & Marco Savegnago, 2020. "Anti-poverty measures in Italy: a microsimulation analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1298, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Lamarche, Pierre, 2017. "Estimating consumption in the HFCS: Experimental results on the first wave of the HFCS," Statistics Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    11. Massimo Baldini & Daniele Pacifico & Federica Termini, 2015. "Imputation of missing expenditure information in standard household income surveys," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0116, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Massimo Baldini & Daniele Pacifico & Federica Termini, 2015. "Imputation of missing expenditure information in standard household income surveys," Department of Economics 0049, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Alastair Thomas & Fidel Picos-Sánchez, 2012. "Shifting from Social Security Contributions to Consumption Taxes: The Impact on Low-Income Earner Work Incentives," OECD Taxation Working Papers 11, OECD Publishing.
    14. Elena Pisano & Simone Tedeschi, 2014. "Micro Data Fusion of Italian Expenditures and Incomes Surveys," Working Papers in Public Economics 164, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christl, Michael & Papini, Andrea & Tumino, Alberto, 2020. "Heterogeneity in effective VAT rates across native and migrant households in France, Germany and Spain," GLO Discussion Paper Series 723, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Cristina Cirillo & Lucia Imperioli & Marco Manzo, 2021. "The Value Added Tax Simulation Model: VATSIM-DF (II)," Working Papers wp2021-12, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    4. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago, 2021. "A new universal child allowance in Italy: equity and efficiency concerns," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 636, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristina Cirillo & Lucia Imperioli & Marco Manzo, 2021. "The Value Added Tax Simulation Model: VATSIM-DF (II)," Working Papers wp2021-12, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    2. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Christl, Michael & Papini, Andrea & Tumino, Alberto, 2020. "Heterogeneity in effective VAT rates across native and migrant households in France, Germany and Spain," GLO Discussion Paper Series 723, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. CPB Netherlands & CAPP, 2013. "Study on the Impacts of Fiscal Devaluation," Taxation Papers 36, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. Pestel, Nico & Sommer, Eric, 2013. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: Efficient, but Regressive?," IZA Discussion Papers 7804, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851, February.
    7. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago, 2021. "A new universal child allowance in Italy: equity and efficiency concerns," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 636, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Lamarche, Pierre, 2017. "Estimating consumption in the HFCS: Experimental results on the first wave of the HFCS," Statistics Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    9. Francesca Gastaldi & Paolo Liberati & Elena Pisano & Simone Tedeschi, 2017. "Regressivity-Reducing VAT Reforms," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 39-72.
    10. Teixidó, Jordi J. & Verde, Stefano F., 2017. "Is the Gasoline Tax Regressive in the Twenty-First Century? Taking Wealth into Account," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 109-125.
    11. Vanesa Jorda & Jose M. Alonso, 2020. "What works to mitigate and reduce relative (and absolute) inequality?: A systematic review," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    13. Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 542-563, September.
    14. Baris Ucar & Gianni Betti, 2016. "Longitudinal statistical matching: transferring consumption expenditure from HBS to SILC panel survey," Department of Economics University of Siena 739, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Pender, John & Jo, Young & Miller, Cristina, 2015. "Economic Impacts of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Payments in Nonmetro vs. Metro Counties," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. European Commission, 2013. "Tax reforms in EU Member States - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability – 2013 Report," Taxation Papers 38, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    17. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    18. Parry Ian W. H. & West Sarah E & Laxminarayan Ramanan, 2009. "Fiscal and Externality Rationales for Alcohol Policies," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-48, July.
    19. Matthew S. Rutledge & John E. Lindner, 2016. "Do Late-Career Wages Boost Social Security More For Women Than Men?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2016-13, Center for Retirement Research.
    20. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2011. "The distributional impact of the crisis in Greece," DEOS Working Papers 1124, Athens University of Economics and Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    microsimulation model; redistribution; efficiency; taxation; progressivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1244_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.