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Forecasting banknote circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic using structural time series models

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaus Bartzsch

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Marco Brandi

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Lucas Devigne

    (Banque de France)

  • Raymond de Pastor

    (Banque de France)

  • Gianluca Maddaloni

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Diana Posada Restrepo

    (Banco de España)

  • Gabriele Sene

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of euro banknotes in circulation (cumulated net issuance) had been issued by the national central banks of France, Germany, Italy and Spain (‘4 NCBs’). To date, the 4 NCBs have been using ARIMAX models to forecast the banknotes issued nationally in circulation by denomination (‘benchmark models’). This paper presents the structural time series models developed by the 4 NCBs as an additional forecasting tool. The forecast accuracy measures used in this study show that the structural time series models outperform the benchmark models currently in use at each of the 4 NCBs for most of the denominations. However, it should be borne in mind that the statistical informative value of this comparison is limited by the fact the projection period is only twelve months.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaus Bartzsch & Marco Brandi & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor & Gianluca Maddaloni & Diana Posada Restrepo & Gabriele Sene, 2023. "Forecasting banknote circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic using structural time series models," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_771_23
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2023-0771/QEF_771_23.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Schneider, Friedrich & Uhl, Matthias, 2019. "Cash use in Germany - Macroeconomic estimates of the extent of illicit cash use in Germany," EconStor Research Reports 267893, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Franz Seitz & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor, 2022. "Different Motives for Holding Cash in France: an Analysis of the Net Cash Issues of the Banque de France," Working papers 888, Banque de France.
    3. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874, Decembrie.
    4. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2011. "Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: Estimation using direct approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,20e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2021. "Cash and crises: No surprises by the virus," IMFS Working Paper Series 150, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro; demand for banknotes; forecast of banknotes in circulation; structural time series models; ARIMA models; intervention variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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