IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_201_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The macroeconomic impact of the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis for the Italian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Busetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pietro Cova

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This work analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the euro-area sovereign debt crisis on the Italian economy by estimating the contribution of the main transmission channels underlying the recessionary dynamics at play since the second half of 2011. By means of a counterfactual analysis undertaken using the Bank of Italy�s quarterly econometric model it is estimated that (i) compared with a �no-crisis scenario�, the GDP loss amounts cumulatively to around 6.5 percentage points in 2012-2013; (ii) the drop in investment stems mainly from a worsening of financing conditions for firms, while the contraction in consumption expenditure hinges chiefly on the negative impact on households� disposable income of the fiscal measures enacted in response to the crisis, as well as heightened uncertainty and lower confidence levels; and (iii) unlike the 2008-09 recession, during the sovereign debt crisis the major impact on economic activity stems from internal factors, which account for about two thirds of the downturn in GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Busetti & Pietro Cova, 2013. "The macroeconomic impact of the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 201, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_201_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0201/QEF_201.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 1, pages 1-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), 2005. "Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3918, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kovacs, Agnes & Rondinelli, Concetta & Trucchi, Serena, 2021. "Permanent versus transitory income shocks over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    3. Busetti, Fabio & Caivano, Michele & Delle Monache, Davide & Pacella, Claudia, 2021. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Alessandro Notarpietro & Lisa Rodano, 2016. "The evolution of bad debts in Italy during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 350, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Every cloud has a silver lining. The sovereign crisis and Italian potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1010, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Ugo Albertazzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2016. "An inquiry into the determinants of the profitability of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 364, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Fabio Busetti, 2017. "Quantile Aggregation of Density Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 495-512, August.
    9. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2019. "The non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB: motivations, effectiveness and risks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Italian Economy during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 269-315, June.
    2. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2013. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the Italian economy during the sovereign debt crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Alessio Ciarlone & Andrea Colabella, 2016. "Spillovers of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy into CESEE economies," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(81), pages 175-190, November.
    4. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    5. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    7. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Cyril Couaillier & Thomas Ferrière & Valerio Scalone, 2019. "ALIENOR, a Macrofinancial Model for Macroprudential Policy," Working papers 724, Banque de France.
    9. Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard, 2012. "LOLA 2.0: Luxembourg OverLapping generation model for policy Analysis," BCL working papers 76, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Markus Leibrecht & Martin Schneider, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Giovanni Dosi & Marcello Minenna & Andrea Roventini & Roberto Violi, 2021. "Making the Eurozone work: a risk-sharing reform of the European Stability Mechanism," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 617-657, April.
    13. Fabrizio Balassone & Sara Cecchetti & Martina Cecioni & Marika Cioffi & Wanda Cornacchia & Flavia Corneli & Gabriele Semeraro, 2018. "Economic governance in the euro area: balancing risk reduction and risk sharing," Chapters, in: Giuseppe Eusepi & Richard E. Wagner (ed.), Debt Default and Democracy, chapter 7, pages 124-154, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Anderson, Heather M. & Dungey, Mardi & Osborn, Denise R. & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Financial integration and the construction of historical financial data for the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1498-1509, July.
    15. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache, 2021. "Domestic and Global Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Expectile Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 982-1001, August.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oasij6sc6 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Luciano Greco & Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Davide Raggi, 2023. "When Fiscal Discipline meets Macroeconomic Stability: the Euro-stability Bond," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0300, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    18. Vitor Carvalho & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2011. "Investment and output effects of fiscal consolidations in a new-Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro Area: composition matters?," EcoMod2011 3246, EcoMod.
    19. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    21. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italian economy; european sovereign debt crisis; forecasting and simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_201_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.