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Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

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  • Xing Guo
  • Pablo Ottonello
  • Thomas Winberry
  • Toni Whited

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of asymmetric information between firms and external investors. To do so, we develop a heterogeneous firm macro model in which firms have private information about their quality. Private information creates a lemons problem in the market for external finance, depressing investment relative to the full information benchmark. We measure the distribution of private information, and therefore the magnitude of this lemons problem, using high-frequency stock price changes when firms raise new funding (revealing their quality to the market). We find that changes in distribution of private information are a quantitatively important determinant of aggregate fluctuations. For example, a spike in private information accounts for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective at that time.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry & Toni Whited, 2025. "Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Staff Working Papers 25-20, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-20
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-20
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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