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Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels with Higher-Order Moments: Theory and Evidence

  • Fousseni Chabi-Yo
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    The author develops a strategy for utilizing higher moments and conditioning information efficiently, and hence improves on the variance bounds computed by Hansen and Jagannathan (1991, the HJ bound) and Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990, the GHT bound). The author's bound incorporates variance risk premia. It reaches the GHT bound when non-linearities in returns are not priced. The author also provides an optimally scaled bound with conditioning information, higher moments, and variance risk premia that improves on the Bekaert and Liu (2004, the BL bound) optimally scaled bound. This bound reaches the BL bound when nonlinearities in returns are not priced. When the conditional first four moments are misspecified, the author's optimally scaled bound remains a lower bound to the variance on pricing kernels, whereas the BL bound does not. The author empirically illustrates the behaviour of the bounds using Bekaert and Liu's (2004) econometric models. He also uses higher moments and conditioning information to provide distance measures that improve on the Hansen and Jagannathan distance measures. The author uses these distance measures to evaluate the performance of asset-pricing models. Some existing pricing kernels are able to describe returns ignoring the impact of higher moments and variance risk premia. When accounting for the impact of higher moments and variance risk premia, these same pricing kernels have difficulty in explaining returns on the assets and are unable to price non-linearities or higher moments.

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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-38.

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    Length: 56 pages
    Date of creation: 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-38
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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    3. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, . "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," CRSP working papers 352, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-62, September.
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    8. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Variance Risk Premia," Finance 0409015, EconWPA.
    9. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 1999. "Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels," NBER Working Papers 6880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
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    15. Chapman, D.A., 1996. "Approximating the Asset Pricing Kernel," Papers 96-02, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
    16. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip, 2000. "Spanning and derivative-security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 205-238, February.
    17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
    18. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
    19. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    20. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
    21. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
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