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Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

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  • Jacob Dolinar
  • Patrick Sabourin
  • Matt West

Abstract

We introduce a summary indicator based on the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives. We also leverage the rich demographic information available in the CSCE to construct summary indicators for different groups defined by characteristics such as age, home-ownership status and income. We show that there is significant heterogeneity across different demographic groups. This heterogeneity helps us understand how economic shocks disproportionately impact some households. Finally, we investigate which macroeconomic variables drive changes in the CSCE indicator and show that the fundamental drivers vary over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Dolinar & Patrick Sabourin & Matt West, 2025. "Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations," Discussion Papers 2025-11, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:25-11
    DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2025-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
    2. Marwane El Alaoui & Elie Bouri & Nehme Azoury, 2020. "The Determinants of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment: Linear and Nonlinear Models," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Scott A. Brave & Jacob S. Herbstman, 2023. "Persistently Pessimistic: Consumer and Small Business Sentiment After the Covid Recession," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 0, pages 1-9, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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