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Las perspectivas de la economia espanola en 2012

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  • Rafael Domenech

Abstract

Tras el intento de recuperacion economica de 2010 y principios de 2011, la economia espanola ha vuelto a la recesion. La crisis de deuda soberana en Europa, la perdida de confianza y las elevadas tensiones financieras situan a la economía espanola al borde de una severa restriccion crediticia y amenazan con posponer el inicio de la recuperacion economica y reducir significativamente su crecimiento potencial. Para evitar ese escenario, Espana necesita que la eurozona utilice los mecanismos e instituciones existentes con la maxima efectividad y flexibilidad, para anclar cuanto antes las expectativas de los agentes economicos sobre el futuro del euro y recuperar el atractivo de los mercados de deuda y la demanda de los inversores internacionales. Al mismo tiempo, Espana debe llevar a cabo una estrategia creible y bien coordinada con las instituciones europeas, con la que realizar una consolidacion fiscal que sea a la vez rigurosa y gradual de todas sus administraciones publicas, completar la reestructuracion bancaria y efectuar un amplio conjunto de reformas estructurales que faciliten la reasignacion de los factores productivos a las empresas y sectores mas dinamicos, incentivar la inversion y la creacion de empleo, y generar expectativas de un mayor crecimiento potencial.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Domenech, 2012. "Las perspectivas de la economia espanola en 2012," Working Papers 1217, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Javier Morales & Sara G. Castellanos & Mariana A. Toran, 2012. "Analisis del uso de servicios financieros por parte de las empresas en Mexico. Que nos dice el Censo Economico 2009," Working Papers 1215, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. KC Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2013. "Latin American Commodity Export Concentration: Is There a China Effect?," Working Papers 1306, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Javier Alonso & David Tuesta & Jasmina Bjeletic & Carlos Herrera & Soledad Hormazabal & Ivonne Ordonez & Carolina Romero, 2009. "Proyecciones del impacto de los fondos de pensiones en la inversion en infraestructura y el crecimiento en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0921, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Mariana A. Toran & F. Javier Morales & Sara G. Castellanos, 2012. "Analysis of the Use of Financial Services by Companies in Mexico: What does the 2009 Economic Census tell us?," Working Papers 1216, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    previsiones; crecimiento potencial; equilibriios multiples;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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