IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/avg/wpaper/fr8276.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comment analyser le risque sociopolitique ? Une composante clé du risque-pays

Author

Listed:
  • Clémence Vergne
  • Camille Laville

Abstract

Les risques de nature sociopolitique constituent une dimension clé du risque-pays. L’expérience historique révèle en effet que les crises sociopolitiques peuvent durablement enrayer les processus de développement et conduire à une dégradation marquée des composantes économiques et financières du risque-pays. À titre d’illustration, un conflit civil coûte en moyenne à un pays en développement (PED) 30 années de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) (cf. rapport sur le développement dans le monde de la Banque mondiale, 2011). De surcroît, le taux de pauvreté des pays qui sont le théâtre de crises prolongées peut être supérieur de plus de 20 points à celui des pays non victimes de crises. Enfin, les violences qui éclatent dans une zone ont tendance à se propager, compromettant les perspectives économiques de régions tout entières.En dépit de leur importance, l’intégration des risques sociopolitiques dans les analyses risque-pays est restée longtemps très marginale. Les crises récentes (le « Printemps arabe » et la crise sahélienne notamment) ont mis en exergue l’importance de l’appréciation de cette dimension du risque-pays et mis en lumière la fragilité des méthodes d’analyse.

Suggested Citation

  • Clémence Vergne & Camille Laville, 2018. "Comment analyser le risque sociopolitique ? Une composante clé du risque-pays," Working Paper 43fceb8c-8f0f-4aaa-af2e-1, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr8276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afd.fr/sites/afd/files/2018-02-05-48-06/md-25-risque%20sociopolitique-risque%20pays-Vergne-Laville.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl von Holdt, 2013. "South Africa: the transition to violent democracy," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(138), pages 589-604, December.
    2. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    3. Vreeland, James Raymond, 2008. "Political Institutions and Human Rights: Why Dictatorships Enter into the United Nations Convention Against Torture," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 65-101, January.
    4. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob de Haan & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2023. "Election-Induced Fiscal Policy Cycles in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10868, CESifo.
    2. Raffaella Santolini, 2017. "Electoral Rules And Public Spending Composition: The Case Of Italian Regions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 551-577, July.
    3. Lavinia DudaÈ™ & Lavinia MihiÈ›, 2019. "What Shapes Elections and Corruption in Emerging and Developing Countries ?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 195-201, August.
    4. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
    5. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Navas, Antonio, 2017. "Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 582-604.
    6. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    7. Havlik, Annika, 2020. "Political budget cycles in European public procurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-069, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
    10. Janků, Jan & Libich, Jan, 2019. "Ignorance isn't bliss: Uninformed voters drive budget cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 21-43.
    11. Jakob Haan & Jeroen Klomp, 2013. "Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-410, December.
    12. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
    13. Niklas Potrafke, 2006. "Political Effects on the Allocation of Public Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 653, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. López-Cazar, Ibeth & Papyrakis, Elissaios & Pellegrini, Lorenzo, 2021. "The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and corruption in Latin America: Evidence from Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Akpan, Uduak & Morimoto, Risako, 2022. "An application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to the prioritization of rural roads to improve rural accessibility in Nigeria," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    17. Helene Ehrhart, 2013. "Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 195-211, July.
    18. Potrafke Niklas, 2011. "Public Expenditures on Education and Cultural Affairs in the West German States: Does Government Ideology Influence the Budget Composition?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 124-145, February.
    19. Aidt, Toke S. & Mooney, Graham, 2014. "Voting suffrage and the political budget cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902–1937," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 53-71.
    20. Israel Garcia & Bernd Hayo, 2022. "The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202223, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr8276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AFD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.