Shifting to a Mediterranean Diet and the sustainable transformation Greek Agri-Food System

The Greek agri-food system faces mounting environmental, economic, and public health challenges driven by climate change, biodiversity loss, and a departure from traditional dietary patterns. This study uses the FABLE calculator to examine the potential impacts of transitioning toward the Mediterranean Diet (MD) under different scenario pathways. The FABLE Calculator is an integrated modelling tool for assessing sustainable food and land-use pathways under various scenarios including Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our analysis for Greece highlights that adopting the MD could reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Greece by up to 46-60% by 2050.This occurs primarily through lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from reduced livestock production and associated land-use change. Other key environmental benefits include enhanced biodiversity and improved land-use efficiency. The shift also delivers substantial health gains, lowering risks of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes while improving food affordability. However, our results also highlight significant economic trade-offs, including declines in production value and employment particularly within livestock-dependent sectors. Projected increases in production for crops does not compensate for losses in livestock production. Productivity improvements further accelerate emissions reduction and further reduce production costs but do not fully offset labor losses. The findings underscore the "double dividend" of dietary transitions-simultaneous climate and health benefits-whilst revealing key economic problems and evincing the need for complementary policies to ensure equity and resilience. Integrating dietary shifts into national climate, agricultural, and health strategies, supported by education, fiscal incentives, and social protection, can advance Greece toward a sustainable, healthy, and inclusive food system. But more effort is needed to match supply side measures to dietary changes, echoing very recent publications and case studies.