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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author

Listed:
  • David Leclère

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Oxford University)

  • Mike Barrett

    (WWF UK, The Living Planet Centre)

  • Stuart H. M. Butchart

    (BirdLife International
    University of Cambridge)

  • Abhishek Chaudhary

    (Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich
    Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur)

  • Adriana Palma

    (Natural History Museum)

  • Fabrice A. J. DeClerck

    (EAT
    Bioversity International, CGIAR)

  • Moreno Marco

    (CSIRO Land and Water
    Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Martina Dürauer

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Robin Freeman

    (Zoological Society of London)

  • Michael Harfoot

    (World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC))

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    Ritsumeikan University)

  • Stefanie Hellweg

    (Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich)

  • Jelle P. Hilbers

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Radboud University)

  • Samantha L. L. Hill

    (Natural History Museum
    World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC))

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Nancy Jennings

    (Dotmoth)

  • Tamás Krisztin

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Georgina M. Mace

    (University College London)

  • Haruka Ohashi

    (Forest Research and Management Organization)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Andy Purvis

    (Natural History Museum
    Imperial College London)

  • Aafke M. Schipper

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Radboud University)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Hugo Valin

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Hans Meijl

    (Wageningen University and Research
    Wageningen University)

  • Willem-Jan Zeist

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Piero Visconti

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Zoological Society of London
    University College London)

  • Rob Alkemade

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Wageningen University)

  • Rosamunde Almond

    (WWF Netherlands)

  • Gill Bunting

    (BirdLife International)

  • Neil D. Burgess

    (World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC))

  • Sarah E. Cornell

    (Stockholm University)

  • Fulvio Fulvio

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Simon Ferrier

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • Steffen Fritz

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    Kyoto University
    Energy (ENE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Monique Grooten

    (WWF Netherlands)

  • Thomas Harwood

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • Petr Havlík

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Mario Herrero

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

  • Andrew J. Hoskins

    (CSIRO Health and Biosecurity)

  • Martin Jung

    (Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Tom Kram

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Tetsuya Matsui

    (Forest Research and Management Organization)

  • Carsten Meyer

    (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
    University of Leipzig)

  • Deon Nel

    (WWF International
    Stockholm University)

  • Tim Newbold

    (University College London)

  • Guido Schmidt-Traub

    (Sustainable Development Solutions Network)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Bernardo B. N. Strassburg

    (Pontifícia Universidade Católica
    International Institute for Sustainability)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Chris Ware

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • James E. M. Watson

    (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland
    Global Conservation Programs)

  • Wenchao Wu

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Lucy Young

    (WWF UK, The Living Planet Centre)

Abstract

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Leclère & Michael Obersteiner & Mike Barrett & Stuart H. M. Butchart & Abhishek Chaudhary & Adriana Palma & Fabrice A. J. DeClerck & Moreno Marco & Jonathan C. Doelman & Martina Dürauer & Robin , 2020. "Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 551-556, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:585:y:2020:i:7826:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2705-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuntoli, J. & Barredo, J.I. & Avitabile, V. & Camia, A. & Cazzaniga, N.E. & Grassi, G. & Jasinevičius, G. & Jonsson, R. & Marelli, L. & Robert, N. & Agostini, A. & Mubareka, S., 2022. "The quest for sustainable forest bioenergy: win-win solutions for climate and biodiversity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Law, Elizabeth A. & Macchi, Leandro & Baumann, Matthias & Decarre, Julieta & Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio & Levers, Christian & Mastrangelo, Matías E. & Murray, Francisco & Müller, Daniel & Piquer-Rodrígu, 2021. "Fading opportunities for mitigating agriculture-environment trade-offs in a south American deforestation hotspot," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 262.
    3. Lukas Mahlich & Christopher Jung & Rüdiger Schaldach, 2022. "The Biodiversity Footprint of German Soy-Imports in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Veerkamp, C.J. & Loreti, M. & Benavidez, R. & Jackson, B & Schipper, A.M., 2023. "Comparing three spatial modeling tools for assessing urban ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Edward B. Barbier, 2022. "The Policy Implications of the Dasgupta Review: Land Use Change and Biodiversity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(4), pages 911-935, December.
    6. Fanzo, Jessica & Haddad, Lawrence & Schneider, Kate R. & Béné, Christophe & Covic, Namukolo M. & Guarin, Alejandro & Herforth, Anna W. & Herrero, Mario & Sumaila, U. Rashid & Aburto, Nancy J. & Amuyun, 2021. "Viewpoint: Rigorous monitoring is necessary to guide food system transformation in the countdown to the 2030 global goals," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Rob Roggema, 2024. "Let the Trees ‘Talk’: Giving Voice to Nature through an Immersive Experience," World, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, May.
    8. repec:ags:aaea22:335902 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Connor, Jeffery D. & Summers, David & Regan, Courtney & Abbott, Hayley & Van Der Linden, Leon & Frizenschaf, Jacqueline, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation of payments for water and carbon ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Sonali Shukla McDermid & Matthew Hayek & Dale W. Jamieson & Galina Hale & David Kanter, 2023. "Research needs for a food system transition," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-15, April.
    11. T. B. White & S. O. Petrovan & L. A. Bennun & T. Butterworth & A. P. Christie & H. Downey & S. B. Hunter & B. R. Jobson & S. O. S. E. zu Ermgassen & W. J. Sutherland, 2023. "Principles for using evidence to improve biodiversity impact mitigation by business," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 4719-4733, November.
    12. Sun, Zhongxiao & Behrens, Paul & Tukker, Arnold & Bruckner, Martin & Scherer, Laura, 2022. "Shared and environmentally just responsibility for global biodiversity loss," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Thomas B. White & Leonardo R. Viana & Geneviève Campbell & Claire Elverum & Leon A. Bennun, 2021. "Using technology to improve the management of development impacts on biodiversity," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 3502-3516, December.
    14. Weerasena, Lakmali & Shier, Douglas & Tonkyn, David & McFeaters, Mark & Collins, Christopher, 2023. "A sequential approach to reserve design with compactness and contiguity considerations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    15. Julien CALAS & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN (AFD) & and Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank), 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for biodiversity-related socioeconomic impacts?," Working Paper 1a39419b-ef1d-4b82-a7be-d, Agence française de développement.
    16. Chiarella, Cristina & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Abeygunawardane, Dilini & Conforti, Piero, 2023. "Balancing the trade-offs between land productivity, labor productivity and labor intensity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(10), pages 1618-1634.

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