IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2610.14145.html

Is the business of frontier AI companies selling tokens? Value capture and equity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Peterson

Abstract

We examine business models that could support frontier AI companies' valuations and the public evidence of plans to earn income beyond selling model access. Reverse cash-flow calculations for OpenAI and Anthropic yield combined year-ten revenue requirements of \$2.79 trillion or \$733 billion, depending on financial assumptions. Public documents identify proposed payments and ownership interests that could supply additional income, such as through partnerships on pharmaceuticals, robotics, or materials science. We discuss how these arrangements relate to firm boundaries and value capture.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Peterson, 2026. "Is the business of frontier AI companies selling tokens? Value capture and equity prices," Papers 2610.14145, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.14145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.14145
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Teece, David J., 2018. "Profiting from innovation in the digital economy: Enabling technologies, standards, and licensing models in the wireless world," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1367-1387.
    2. Agrawal, Ajay & McHale, John & Oettl, Alexander, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and scientific discovery: a model of prioritized search," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    3. Arora, Ashish & Fosfuri, Andrea & Gambardella, Alfonso, 2001. "Markets for Technology and Their Implications for Corporate Strategy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 10(2), pages 419-451, June.
    4. David J. TEECE, 2008. "Profiting from technological innovation: Implications for integration, collaboration, licensing and public policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Transfer And Licensing Of Know-How And Intellectual Property Understanding the Multinational Enterprise in the Modern World, chapter 5, pages 67-87, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moreira, Solon & Klueter, Thomas Maximilian & Asija, Aman, 2023. "Market for technology 2.0? Reassessing the role of complementary assets on licensing decisions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(7).
    2. Sharma, Ruchi & Sharma, Tanmay & Dhanora, Madan & Gupta, Puneet, 2026. "Understanding working of patents: Empirical evidence based on India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(5).
    3. Henkel, Joachim, 2022. "Licensing standard-essential patents in the IoT – A value chain perspective on the markets for technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    4. Baldwin, Carliss Y. & Bogers, Marcel L.A.M. & Kapoor, Rahul & West, Joel, 2024. "Focusing the ecosystem lens on innovation studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    5. Cantner, Uwe & Graf, Holger, 2006. "The network of innovators in Jena: An application of social network analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 463-480, May.
    6. Jason Potts & Andrew Torrance & Dietmar Harhoff & Eric von Hippel, 2024. "Profiting from Data Commons: Theory, Evidence, and Strategy Implications," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Kafouros, Mario I. & Forsans, Nicolas, 2012. "The role of open innovation in emerging economies: Do companies profit from the scientific knowledge of others?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 362-370.
    8. Alessio Cozzolino & Gianmario Verona, 2022. "Responding to Complementary-Asset Discontinuities: A Multilevel Adaptation Framework of Resources, Demand, and Ecosystems," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 1990-2017, September.
    9. Zhang, Haoyu & Shi, Yongjiang & Liu, Jianxin & Wu, Xiaobo, 2021. "How do technology strategies affect the catch-up progress of high-tech latecomers? Evidence from two Chinese research-institute-transformed telecommunications firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 805-821.
    10. Desyllas, Panos & Sako, Mari, 2013. "Profiting from business model innovation: Evidence from Pay-As-You-Drive auto insurance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 101-116.
    11. Iizuka, Michiko & Hane, Gerald, 2021. "Transformation towards sustainable development goals: Role of innovation ecosystems for inclusive, disruptive advances in five Asian case studies," MERIT Working Papers 2021-001, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. repec:wip:wpaper:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hou, Hong & Shi, Yongjiang, 2021. "Ecosystem-as-structure and ecosystem-as-coevolution: A constructive examination," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Jean-François Hennart, 2020. "More than intent: A bundling model of MNE–SME interactions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(7), pages 1176-1194, September.
    15. Perri, Alessandra & Silvestri, Daniela & Zirpoli, Francesco, 2025. "Technological change, incumbent dominance, and knowledge base evolution in multi-technology industries: A patent analysis of the global automotive sector," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(9).
    16. Devarakonda, Ramakrishna & Reuer, Jeffrey J. & Tadikonda, Harsha, 2022. "Founder social capital and value appropriation in R&D alliance agreements," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(4).
    17. Agarwal, Rajshree & Shah, Sonali K., 2014. "Knowledge sources of entrepreneurship: Firm formation by academic, user and employee innovators," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1109-1133.
    18. Soltanzadeh, Javad & Sahebjamnia, Navid & Khosroshahi, Elnaz Mesma & Bouguerra, Abderaouf, 2024. "Commercializing Covid-19 diagnostic technologies: A review of challenges, success factors, and insights from the profiting from innovation framework," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Barirani, Ahmad & Beaudry, Catherine & Agard, Bruno, 2017. "Can universities profit from general purpose inventions? The case of Canadian nanotechnology patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 271-283.
    20. Yu-Kai Lin & Likoebe M. Maruping, 2022. "Open Source Collaboration in Digital Entrepreneurship," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 212-230, January.
    21. Dahlander, Linus & Gann, David M. & Wallin, Martin W., 2021. "How open is innovation? A retrospective and ideas forward," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.14145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.