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Credible Discourse on Climate Policy: Beyond Dueling Certitudes

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

Whatever the policy question under consideration, reasoned and realistic evaluation requires credible policy analysis under uncertainty. This holds particularly to the study of climate policy in the United States, where science and ideology have become increasingly entangled. Welfare economics provides a transparent formal framework to describe and evaluate the subtle tradeoffs that must be addressed when comparing alternative climate policies. The largely qualitative discussions of climate policy in public-facing reports suffer from failure to use welfare economics to assess tradeoffs. I use 2025 reports by the National Academies and by the US Department of Energy as case studies.

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  • Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Credible Discourse on Climate Policy: Beyond Dueling Certitudes," Papers 2609.09337, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2609.09337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.
    2. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Manski, Charles F. & Sanstad, Alan H., 2022. "Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Kenneth J. Arrow & Maureen L. Cropper & Christian Gollier & Ben Groom & Geoffrey M. Heal & Richard G. Newell & William D. Nordhaus & Robert S. Pindyck & William A. Pizer & Paul R. Portney & Thomas Ste, 2014. "Editor's Choice Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 145-163.
    4. William Nordhaus, 2019. "Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 1991-2014, June.
    5. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, August.
    6. Sterner, Thomas & Tol, Richard S. J. & Weitzman, Martin L. & Pizer, William A. & Portney, Paul R. & Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Gollier, Christian & Groom, Ben & Heal, Geoffrey M. & Newe, 2014. "Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?," Scholarly Articles 33373349, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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