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Regimes in the Order Flow

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Listed:
  • Ramzi Jebali

Abstract

Financial markets alternate between periods of relative stability and instability, with structural breaks marking the transitions between these regimes. Identifying such breaks in real time is a central requirement for any trading or risk system operating at high frequency. This report studies Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection (BOCPD) and two extensions proposed in the literature, and applies them to the signed order flow of NASDAQ-listed equities.

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  • Ramzi Jebali, 2026. "Regimes in the Order Flow," Papers 2609.07989, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2609.07989
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2004. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of 'random' price changes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 176-190.
    2. Lillo Fabrizio & Farmer J. Doyne, 2004. "The Long Memory of the Efficient Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-35, September.
    3. F. Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & J. Doyne Farmer, 2004. "A theory for long-memory in supply and demand," Papers cond-mat/0412708, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2005.
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