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The Best Are Always the Best: COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency and the Dispersion of Olympic Medal Outcomes

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  • Fernando Delbianco
  • Federico Fioravanti
  • Fernando Tohm'e

Abstract

We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The distribution is not. Among the 84 non-traditionally dominant nations, medal changes are three to six times more dispersed in high-stringency countries; the difference is absent among dominant nations and concentrated in men's events. A common shock left the competitive hierarchy intact while sharply raising outcome uncertainty for smaller Olympic teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Delbianco & Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Tohm'e, 2026. "The Best Are Always the Best: COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency and the Dispersion of Olympic Medal Outcomes," Papers 2608.16325, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.16325
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    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.16325
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