IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2608.05676.html

Risk in a Data-Rich Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Caldara
  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Molin Zhong

Abstract

We characterize asymmetric tail risk across over one hundred U.S. macroeconomic and financial variables using a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. A single mechanism unifies growth-at-risk, inflation-at-risk, and sectoral risk heterogeneity: common factors and their volatilities move together, while heterogeneous loadings transmit the resulting asymmetry unevenly across variables. We find that asymmetric tail risk is pervasive but heterogeneous. The heterogeneity is systematic: factor exposures, especially to financial conditions and inflation, explain over half of the cross-sectional variation in tail asymmetry across variables. These exposures determine where in the economy vulnerabilities concentrate and how the balance of tail risks shifts over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Caldara & Haroon Mumtaz & Molin Zhong, 2026. "Risk in a Data-Rich Model," Papers 2608.05676, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05676
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.05676
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    2. Gneiting, Tilmann & Ranjan, Roopesh, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422.
    3. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1115-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tilmann Gneiting & Roopesh Ranjan, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422, July.
    6. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Busetti, Fabio & Caivano, Michele & Delle Monache, Davide & Pacella, Claudia, 2021. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Tibor Szendrei & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Mark E. Schaffer, 2024. "MIDAS-QR with 2-Dimensional Structure," Papers 2406.15157, arXiv.org.
    3. Nicholas Fritsch, 2025. "Tail Sensitivity of US Bank Net Interest Margins: A Bayesian Penalized Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 25-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Smith, Michael Stanley & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree, 2018. "Inversion copulas from nonlinear state space models with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 389-407.
    5. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    6. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2024. "From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1675-1704, October.
    7. Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2024. "Density forecast transformations," Papers 2412.06092, arXiv.org.
    8. Catania, Leopoldo & Grassi, Stefano, 2022. "Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 878-894.
    9. Garrón, Ignacio & Rodríguez-Caballero, Vladimir & Ruiz, Esther, 2026. "International factors and inflation risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 889-908.
    10. Ignacio Garr'on & Andrey Ramos, 2025. "High-frequency Density Nowcasts of U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers 2501.03380, arXiv.org.
    11. Diks, Cees & Fang, Hao, 2020. "Comparing density forecasts in a risk management context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 531-551.
    12. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    13. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    14. Ignacio Garr'on & C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," Papers 2410.20628, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    15. Pierluigi Vallarino, 2024. "Dynamic kernel models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-082/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Capturing Macro‐Economic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1099-1127, August.
    17. Martina Hengge, 2019. "Uncertainty as a Predictor of Economic Activity," IHEID Working Papers 19-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    18. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    19. Sokol, Andrej, 2025. "Fan charts 2.0: Flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1148-1164.
    20. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.