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Impact by design: translating Lead times in flux into an R handbook with code

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  • Harrison Katz

Abstract

This commentary translates the central ideas in Lead times in flux into a practice ready handbook in R. The original article measures change in the full distribution of booking lead times with a normalized L1 distance and tracks that divergence across months relative to year over year and to a fixed 2018 reference. It also provides a bound that links divergence and remaining horizon to the relative error of pickup forecasts. We implement these ideas end to end in R, using a minimal data schema and providing runnable scripts, simulated examples, and a prespecified evaluation plan. All results use synthetic data so the exposition is fully reproducible without reference to proprietary sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Katz, 2025. "Impact by design: translating Lead times in flux into an R handbook with code," Papers 2511.12763, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.12763
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.12763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katz, Harrison & Brusch, Kai Thomas & Weiss, Robert E., 2024. "A Bayesian Dirichlet auto-regressive moving average model for forecasting lead times," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1556-1567.
    2. Harrison Katz & Erica Savage & Peter Coles, 2025. "Lead Times in Flux: Analyzing Airbnb Booking Dynamics During Global Upheavals (2018-2022)," Papers 2501.10535, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    4. Weatherford, Larry R. & Kimes, Sheryl E., 2003. "A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 401-415.
    5. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    6. Alison L. Gibbs & Francis Edward Su, 2002. "On Choosing and Bounding Probability Metrics," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 70(3), pages 419-435, December.
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