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Persuasion Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs

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  • Sung Jae Jun
  • Sokbae Lee

Abstract

We develop a framework for identifying and estimating persuasion effects in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The RD persuasion rate measures the probability that individuals at the threshold would take the action if exposed to a persuasive message, given that they would not take the action without exposure. We present identification results for both sharp and fuzzy RD designs, derive sharp bounds under various data scenarios, and extend the analysis to local compliers. Estimation and inference rely on local polynomial regression, enabling straightforward implementation with standard RD tools. Applications to public health and media illustrate its empirical relevance.

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  • Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2025. "Persuasion Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2509.26517, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.26517
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    1. Caroline Le Pennec & Vincent Pons, 2023. "How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 703-767.
    2. Michal Kolesár & Christoph Rothe, 2018. "Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Discrete Running Variable," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2277-2304, August.
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