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Returns and Order Flow Imbalances: Intraday Dynamics and Macroeconomic News Effects

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  • Makoto Takahashi

Abstract

We study the interaction between returns and order flow imbalances in the S&P 500 E-mini futures market using a structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity. The model is estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval, capturing both intraday variation and endogeneity due to time aggregation. We find that macroeconomic news announcements sharply reshape price-flow dynamics: price impact rises, flow impact declines, return volatility spikes, and flow volatility falls. Pooling across days, both price and flow impacts are significant at the one-second horizon, with estimates broadly consistent with stylized limit-order-book predictions. Impulse responses indicate that shocks dissipate almost entirely within a second. Structural parameters and volatilities also exhibit pronounced intraday variation tied to liquidity, trading intensity, and spreads. These results provide new evidence on high-frequency price formation and liquidity, highlighting the role of public information and order submission in shaping market quality.

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  • Makoto Takahashi, 2025. "Returns and Order Flow Imbalances: Intraday Dynamics and Macroeconomic News Effects," Papers 2508.06788, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06788
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    References listed on IDEAS

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