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Long-term resilience of online battle over vaccines and beyond

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  • Lucia Illari
  • Nicholas J. Restrepo
  • Neil F. Johnson

Abstract

What has been the impact of the enormous amounts of time, effort and money spent promoting pro-vaccine science from pre-COVID-19 to now? We answer this using a unique mapping of online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views among ~100M Facebook Page members, tracking 1,356 interconnected communities through platform interventions. Remarkably, the network's fundamental architecture shows no change: the isolation of established expertise and the symbiosis of anti and mainstream neutral communities persist. This means that even if the same time, effort and money continue to be spent, nothing will likely change. The reason for this resilience lies in "glocal" evolution: Communities blend multiple topics while bridging neighborhood-level to international scales, creating redundant pathways that transcend categorical targeting. The solution going forward is to focus on the system's network. We show how network engineering approaches can achieve opinion moderation without content removal, representing a paradigm shift from suppression towards structural interventions.

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  • Lucia Illari & Nicholas J. Restrepo & Neil F. Johnson, 2025. "Long-term resilience of online battle over vaccines and beyond," Papers 2508.01398, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.01398
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    1. Neil F. Johnson & Nicolas Velásquez & Nicholas Johnson Restrepo & Rhys Leahy & Nicholas Gabriel & Sara El Oud & Minzhang Zheng & Pedro Manrique & Stefan Wuchty & Yonatan Lupu, 2020. "The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7811), pages 230-233, June.
    2. Sahil Loomba & Alexandre Figueiredo & Simon J. Piatek & Kristen Graaf & Heidi J. Larson, 2021. "Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 337-348, March.
    3. Helen Pearson, 2025. "How to speak to a vaccine sceptic: research reveals what works," Nature, Nature, vol. 642(8067), pages 289-291, June.
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