IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2507.21790.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can large language models assist choice modelling? Insights into prompting strategies and current models capabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Sfeir
  • Gabriel Nova
  • Stephane Hess
  • Sander van Cranenburgh

Abstract

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to support various workflows across different disciplines, yet their potential in choice modelling remains relatively unexplored. This work examines the potential of LLMs as assistive agents in the specification and, where technically feasible, estimation of Multinomial Logit models. We implement a systematic experimental framework involving thirteen versions of six leading LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Gemma, and Llama) evaluated under five experimental configurations. These configurations vary along three dimensions: modelling goal (suggesting vs. suggesting and estimating MNLs); prompting strategy (Zero-Shot vs. Chain-of-Thoughts); and information availability (full dataset vs. data dictionary only). Each LLM-suggested specification is implemented, estimated, and evaluated based on goodness-of-fit metrics, behavioural plausibility, and model complexity. Findings reveal that proprietary LLMs can generate valid and behaviourally sound utility specifications, particularly when guided by structured prompts. Open-weight models such as Llama and Gemma struggled to produce meaningful specifications. Claude 4 Sonnet consistently produced the best-fitting and most complex models, while GPT models suggested models with robust and stable modelling outcomes. Some LLMs performed better when provided with just data dictionary, suggesting that limiting raw data access may enhance internal reasoning capabilities. Among all LLMs, GPT o3 was uniquely capable of correctly estimating its own specifications by executing self-generated code. Overall, the results demonstrate both the promise and current limitations of LLMs as assistive agents in choice modelling, not only for model specification but also for supporting modelling decision and estimation, and provide practical guidance for integrating these tools into choice modellers' workflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Sfeir & Gabriel Nova & Stephane Hess & Sander van Cranenburgh, 2025. "Can large language models assist choice modelling? Insights into prompting strategies and current models capabilities," Papers 2507.21790, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.21790
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.21790
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly, 2024. "Introduction to the Handbook of Choice Modelling," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 1, pages 1-4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Beeramoole, Prithvi Bhat & Arteaga, Cristian & Pinz, Alban & Haque, Md Mazharul & Paz, Alexander, 2023. "Extensive hypothesis testing for estimation of mixed-Logit models," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    3. Hess, Stephane & Palma, David, 2019. "Apollo: A flexible, powerful and customisable freeware package for choice model estimation and application," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-1.
    4. John Buckell & Vrinda Vasavada & Sarah Wordsworth & Dean A. Regier & Matthew Quaife, 2022. "Utility maximization versus regret minimization in health choice behavior: Evidence from four datasets," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 363-381, February.
    5. Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly & Richard Batley, 2018. "Revisiting consistency with random utility maximisation: theory and implications for practical work," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 181-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Nova & Sander van Cranenburgh & Stephane Hess, 2024. "Understanding the decision-making process of choice modellers," Papers 2411.01704, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    2. Hancock, Thomas O. & Hess, Stephane & Marley, A.A.J. & Choudhury, Charisma F., 2021. "An accumulation of preference: Two alternative dynamic models for understanding transport choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 250-282.
    3. Akshay Vij & Stephane Hess, 2025. "Posterior inference of attitude-behaviour relationships using latent class choice models," Papers 2509.08373, arXiv.org.
    4. S. Van Cranenburgh & S. Wang & A. Vij & F. Pereira & J. Walker, 2021. "Choice modelling in the age of machine learning -- discussion paper," Papers 2101.11948, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Hancock, Thomas O. & Broekaert, Jan & Hess, Stephane & Choudhury, Charisma F., 2020. "Quantum probability: A new method for modelling travel behaviour," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 165-198.
    6. Kriswardhana, Willy & Esztergár-Kiss, Domokos, 2025. "Generational differences in the preferences for MaaS bundles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Salas, Patricio & De la Fuente, Rodrigo & Astroza, Sebastian & Carrasco, Juan Antonio, 2025. "Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Sander van Cranenburgh & Francisco Garrido-Valenzuela, 2023. "Computer vision-enriched discrete choice models, with an application to residential location choice," Papers 2308.08276, arXiv.org.
    9. John Buckell & Alice Wreford & Matthew Quaife & Thomas O. Hancock, 2025. "A break from the norm? Parametric representations of preference heterogeneity for discrete choice models in health," Papers 2506.14099, arXiv.org.
    10. Giovanna Piracci & Fabio Boncinelli & Leonardo Casini, 2023. "Investigating Consumer Preferences for Sustainable Packaging Through a Different Behavioural Approach: A Random Regret Minimization Application," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 1-27, October.
    11. Frings, Oliver & Abildtrup, Jens & Montagné-Huck, Claire & Gorel, Salomé & Stenger, Anne, 2023. "Do individual PES buyers care about additionality and free-riding? A choice experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Péter Czine & Péter Balogh & Zsanett Blága & Zoltán Szabó & Réka Szekeres & Stephane Hess & Béla Juhász, 2024. "Is It Sufficient to Select the Optimal Class Number Based Only on Information Criteria in Fixed- and Random-Parameter Latent Class Discrete Choice Modeling Approaches?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Chorus, Caspar & van Cranenburgh, Sander & Daniel, Aemiro Melkamu & Sandorf, Erlend Dancke & Sobhani, Anae & Szép, Teodóra, 2021. "Obfuscation maximization-based decision-making: Theory, methodology and first empirical evidence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 28-44.
    14. Staudigel, Matthias & Oehlmann, Malte & Roosen, Jutta, 2024. "Demand effects of unilateral versus industry-wide sugar reduction scenarios," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Cai, Yangqian & Moreno, Ana Tsui, 2024. "Identifying non-universal heterogeneity of preferences of leisure cyclists for rural highway environments: A latent-class model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    16. Nikita Arora & Matthew Quaife & Kara Hanson & Mylene Lagarde & Dorka Woldesenbet & Abiy Seifu & Romain Crastes dit Sourd, 2022. "Discrete choice analysis of health worker job preferences in Ethiopia: Separating attribute non‐attendance from taste heterogeneity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 806-819, May.
    17. Lan Anh Nguyen & Manh-Hung Nguyen & Viet-Ngu Hoang & Arnaud Reynaud & Michel Simioni & Clevo Wilson, 2024. "Tourists’ preferences and willingness to pay for protecting a World Heritage site from coastal erosion in Vietnam," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 27607-27628, November.
    18. Park, Jinah & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Jiao, Xiaoying & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Reference-dependence in multi-destination choice: A heterogeneous reference point perspective," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Lu, Hui & Hess, Stephane & Daly, Andrew & Rohr, Charlene & Patruni, Bhanu & Vuk, Goran, 2021. "Using state-of-the-art models in applied work: Travellers willingness to pay for a toll tunnel in Copenhagen," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 37-52.
    20. Iogansen, Xiatian & Wang, Kailai & Bunch, David & Matson, Grant & Circella, Giovanni, 2023. "Deciphering the factors associated with adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in California: An investigation of latent attitudes, socio-demographics, and neighborhood effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.21790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.