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Regional compositional trajectories and structural change: A spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive framework

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  • Matthias Eckardt
  • Philipp Otto

Abstract

Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive model tailored for panel data with composition-valued responses at each areal unit and time point. The proposed framework enables the joint modelling of temporal dynamics and spatial dependence under compositional constraints and is estimated via a quasi maximum likelihood approach. We build on recent theoretical advances to establish identifiability and asymptotic properties of the estimator when both the number of regions and time points grow. The utility and flexibility of the model are demonstrated through two applications: analysing property transaction compositions in an intra-city housing market (Berlin), and regional sectoral compositions in Spain's economy. These case studies highlight how the proposed framework captures key features of spatiotemporal economic processes that are often missed by conventional methods.

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  • Matthias Eckardt & Philipp Otto, 2025. "Regional compositional trajectories and structural change: A spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive framework," Papers 2507.14389, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.14389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thi Huong An Nguyen & Christine Thomas-Agnan & Thibault Laurent & Anne Ruiz-Gazen, 2021. "A simultaneous spatial autoregressive model for compositional data," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 161-175, April.
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    5. Thibault Laurent & Christine Thomas-Agnan & Anne Ruiz-Gazen, 2023. "Covariates impacts in spatial autoregressive models for compositional data," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Laurent, Thibault & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne & Nguyen, T.H.A & Chakir, Raja & Lungarska, Anna, 2020. "Spatial simultaneous autoregressive models for compositional data: Application to land use," TSE Working Papers 20-1098, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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