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Decision theory and the "almost implies near" phenomenon

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  • Christopher P Chambers
  • Federico Echenique

Abstract

We examine behavioral axioms in decision theory that are satisfied approximately rather than exactly. We demonstrate that in key domains -- decisions under risk, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice -- behavior that \emph{almost} satisfies an axiom implies the existence of a utility function that is \emph{near} one that adheres to the standard theoretical representation (e.g., expected utility, or exponentially discounted utility). We explicitly quantify the distance between the utility that captures actual behavior and the ideal theoretical utility as a function of the measured deviation from the axiom. This result formally connects two distinct quantitative exercises: measuring empirical deviations from theory and utilizing approximate optimization. Effectively, we show that small deviations from behavioral axioms rationalize the use of standard models as valid approximations.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher P Chambers & Federico Echenique, 2025. "Decision theory and the "almost implies near" phenomenon," Papers 2502.07126, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.07126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina McGranaghan & Kirby Nielsen & Ted O'Donoghue & Jason Somerville & Charles D. Sprenger, 2024. "Distinguishing Common Ratio Preferences from Common Ratio Effects Using Paired Valuation Tasks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(2), pages 307-347, February.
    2. Ok, Efe A. & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan, 2007. "A theory of (relative) discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 214-245, November.
    3. John D. Hey & Chris Orme, 2018. "Investigating Generalizations Of Expected Utility Theory Using Experimental Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 3, pages 63-98, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Bardier, 2025. "The probability of satisfying axioms: a non-binary perspective on economic design," Papers 2502.13850, arXiv.org.

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