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Decoding OTC Government Bond Market Liquidity: An ABM Model for Market Dynamics

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  • Alicia Vidler
  • Toby Walsh

Abstract

The over-the-counter (OTC) government bond markets are characterised by their bilateral trading structures, which pose unique challenges to understanding and ensuring market stability and liquidity. In this paper, we develop a bespoke ABM that simulates market-maker interactions within a stylised government bond market. The model focuses on the dynamics of liquidity and stability in the secondary trading of government bonds, particularly in concentrated markets like those found in Australia and the UK. Through this simulation, we test key hypotheses around improving market stability, focusing on the effects of agent diversity, business costs, and client base size. We demonstrate that greater agent diversity enhances market liquidity and that reducing the costs of market-making can improve overall market stability. The model offers insights into computational finance by simulating trading without price transparency, highlighting how micro-structural elements can affect macro-level market outcomes. This research contributes to the evolving field of computational finance by employing computational intelligence techniques to better understand the fundamental mechanics of government bond markets, providing actionable insights for both academics and practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Vidler & Toby Walsh, 2024. "Decoding OTC Government Bond Market Liquidity: An ABM Model for Market Dynamics," Papers 2501.16331, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.16331
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    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.16331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alicia Vidler & Toby Walsh, 2025. "Shifting Power: Leveraging LLMs to Simulate Human Aversion in ABMs of Bilateral Financial Exchanges, A bond market study," Papers 2503.00320, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.

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