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Default Process Modeling and Credit Valuation Adjustment

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  • David Xiao

Abstract

This paper presents a convenient framework for modeling default process and pricing derivative securities involving credit risk. The framework provides an integrated view of credit valuation adjustment by linking distance-to-default, default probability, survival probability, and default correlation together. We show that risky valuation is Martingale in our model. The framework reduces the technical issues of performing risky valuation to the same issues faced when performing the ordinary valuation. The numerical results show that the model prediction is consistent with the historical observations.

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  • David Xiao, 2023. "Default Process Modeling and Credit Valuation Adjustment," Papers 2309.03311, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.03311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    3. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    4. Stéphane Crépey, 2015. "Bilateral Counterparty Risk Under Funding Constraints—Part Ii: Cva," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 23-50, January.
    5. Lijun Bo & Agostino Capponi, 2014. "Bilateral credit valuation adjustment for large credit derivatives portfolios," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 431-482, April.
    6. Lokman Abbas-Turki & St'ephane Cr'epey & Bouazza Saadeddine, 2022. "Pathwise CVA Regressions With Oversimulated Defaults," Papers 2211.17005, arXiv.org.
    7. Stéphane Crépey, 2015. "Bilateral Counterparty Risk Under Funding Constraints—Part I: Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Damiano Brigo & Fr'ed'eric Vrins, 2016. "Disentangling wrong-way risk: pricing CVA via change of measures and drift adjustment," Papers 1611.02877, arXiv.org.
    10. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    11. Jessen, Cathrine & Lando, David, 2015. "Robustness of distance-to-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 493-505.
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