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Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Roth
  • Carlos Gaete-Morales
  • Dana Kirchem
  • Wolf-Peter Schill

Abstract

Heat pumps play a major role in decreasing fossil fuel use in heating. They increase electricity demand, but could also foster the system integration of variable renewable energy sources. We analyze three scenarios for expanding decentralized heat pumps in Germany by 2030, focusing on the role of buffer heat storage. Using an open-source power sector model, we assess costs, capacity investments, and emissions effects. We find that investments in solar photovoltaics can cost-effectively accompany the roll-out of heat pumps in case wind power expansion potentials are limited. Results further show that short-duration heat storage substantially reduces the need for firm capacity and battery storage. Larger heat storage sizes do not substantially change the results. Increasing the number of heat pumps from 1.7 to 10 million units could annually save around a quarter of Germany's overall natural gas consumption and around half of households' building-related CO2 emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Roth & Carlos Gaete-Morales & Dana Kirchem & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2023. "Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps," Papers 2307.12918, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2307.12918
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zerrahn, Alexander & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Kemfert, Claudia, 2018. "On the economics of electrical storage for variable renewable energy sources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 259-279.
    2. Gaete-Morales, Carlos & Kramer, Hendrik & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2021. "An open tool for creating battery-electric vehicle time series from empirical data, emobpy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8.
    3. Wiese, Frauke & Schlecht, Ingmar & Bunke, Wolf-Dieter & Gerbaulet, Clemens & Hirth, Lion & Jahn, Martin & Kunz, Friedrich & Lorenz, Casimir & Mühlenpfordt, Jonathan & Reimann, Juliane & Schill, Wolf-P, 2019. "Open Power System Data – Frictionless data for electricity system modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 401-409.
    4. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2020. "Flexible electricity use for heating in markets with renewable energy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 266.
    5. Kröger, David & Peper, Jan & Rehtanz, Christian, 2023. "Electricity market modeling considering a high penetration of flexible heating systems and electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Simon Hilpert, 2020. "Effects of Decentral Heat Pump Operation on Electricity Storage Requirements in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Lizana, Jesus & Halloran, Claire E. & Wheeler, Scot & Amghar, Nabil & Renaldi, Renaldi & Killendahl, Markus & Perez-Maqueda, Luis A. & McCulloch, Malcolm & Chacartegui, Ricardo, 2023. "A national data-based energy modelling to identify optimal heat storage capacity to support heating electrification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    8. Chen, Yi-kuang & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2021. "Impact of fossil-free decentralized heating on northern European renewable energy deployment and the power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting," Papers 2408.00507, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    2. Dana Kirchem & Mario Kendziorski & Enno Wiebrow & Wolf-Peter Schill & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2025. "Solar prosumage under different pricing regimes: Interactions with the transmission grid," Papers 2502.21306, arXiv.org.
    3. Martin Kittel & Alexander Roth & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2024. "Coping with the Dunkelflaute: Power system implications of variable renewable energy droughts in Europe," Papers 2411.17683, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.

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