IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2107.14405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Jiafeng Chen
  • David M. Ritzwoller

Abstract

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.14405
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    2. Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2008. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 61, pages 3895-3962, Elsevier.
    3. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    4. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens, 2020. "Combining Experimental and Observational Data to Estimate Treatment Effects on Long Term Outcomes," Papers 2006.09676, arXiv.org.
    5. Adrien Bouguen & Yue Huang & Michael Kremer & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics," NBER Working Papers 25356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Andres Santos, 2018. "Overidentification in Regular Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1771-1817, September.
    7. Ridder, Geert & Moffitt, Robert, 2007. "The Econometrics of Data Combination," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 75, Elsevier.
    8. Newey, Whitney K, 1994. "The Asymptotic Variance of Semiparametric Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1349-1382, November.
    9. Bryan S. Graham, 2011. "Efficiency Bounds for Missing Data Models With Semiparametric Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 437-452, March.
    10. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    11. Adrien Bouguen & Yue Huang & Michael Kremer & Edward Miguel, 2019. "Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 523-561, August.
    12. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens & Hyunseung Kang, 2016. "Estimating Treatment Effects using Multiple Surrogates: The Role of the Surrogate Score and the Surrogate Index," Papers 1603.09326, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    13. C. B. Begg & D. H. Y. Leung, 2000. "On the use of surrogate end points in randomized trials," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 15-28.
    14. Mark van der Laan & Maya Petersen, 2004. "Estimation of Direct and Indirect Causal Effects in Longitudinal Studies," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1155, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    15. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    16. Jinyong Hahn, 1998. "On the Role of the Propensity Score in Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 315-332, March.
    17. Heejung Bang & James M. Robins, 2005. "Doubly Robust Estimation in Missing Data and Causal Inference Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 962-973, December.
    18. Jane Xu & Scott L. Zeger, 2001. "The Evaluation of Multiple Surrogate Endpoints," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 81-87, March.
    19. Chris Muris, 2020. "Efficient GMM Estimation with Incomplete Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 518-530, July.
    20. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan & Nicholas Y. Li & Laura Schechter, 2021. "Information Technology and Government Decentralization: Experimental Evidence From Paraguay," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 677-701, March.
    21. Joseph Hotz, V. & Imbens, Guido W. & Mortimer, Julie H., 2005. "Predicting the efficacy of future training programs using past experiences at other locations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 241-270.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    2. Rahul Singh, 2021. "A Finite Sample Theorem for Longitudinal Causal Inference with Machine Learning: Long Term, Dynamic, and Mediated Effects," Papers 2112.14249, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Taisuke Otsu & Mengshan Xu, 2022. "Isotonic propensity score matching," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 623, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Mengshan Xu & Taisuke Otsu, 2022. "Isotonic propensity score matching," Papers 2207.08868, arXiv.org.
    5. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2019. "Double debiased machine learning nonparametric inference with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP72/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    7. Ruoxuan Xiong & Allison Koenecke & Michael Powell & Zhu Shen & Joshua T. Vogelstein & Susan Athey, 2021. "Federated Causal Inference in Heterogeneous Observational Data," Papers 2107.11732, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    8. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    9. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2020. "Double Debiased Machine Learning Nonparametric Inference with Continuous Treatments," Papers 2004.03036, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    10. Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Policy Learning With Observational Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 133-161, January.
    11. Rahul Singh & Liyuan Xu & Arthur Gretton, 2020. "Kernel Methods for Causal Functions: Dose, Heterogeneous, and Incremental Response Curves," Papers 2010.04855, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    12. Matias D Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2019. "Two-Step Estimation and Inference with Possibly Many Included Covariates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 1095-1122.
    13. Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey, 2022. "The influence function of semiparametric estimators," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 29-61, January.
    14. Ganesh Karapakula, 2023. "Stable Probability Weighting: Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap," Papers 2301.05703, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    15. Yuehao Bai & Jizhou Liu & Azeem M. Shaikh & Max Tabord-Meehan, 2023. "On the Efficiency of Finely Stratified Experiments," Papers 2307.15181, arXiv.org.
    16. Haitian Xie, 2020. "Efficient and Robust Estimation of the Generalized LATE Model," Papers 2001.06746, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    17. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2019. "Double debiased machine learning nonparametric inference with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP54/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens, 2020. "Combining Experimental and Observational Data to Estimate Treatment Effects on Long Term Outcomes," Papers 2006.09676, arXiv.org.
    19. Stéphane Bonhomme & Martin Weidner, 2020. "Minimizing Sensitivity to Model Misspecification," CeMMAP working papers CWP37/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Stéphane Bonhomme & Martin Weidner, 2022. "Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 907-954, July.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.