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Volatility Modeling of Stocks from Selected Sectors of the Indian Economy Using GARCH

Author

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  • Jaydip Sen
  • Sidra Mehtab
  • Abhishek Dutta

Abstract

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaydip Sen & Sidra Mehtab & Abhishek Dutta, 2021. "Volatility Modeling of Stocks from Selected Sectors of the Indian Economy Using GARCH," Papers 2105.13898, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.13898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moosup Kim & Sangyeol Lee, 2019. "Test for tail index constancy of GARCH innovations based on conditional volatility," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(4), pages 947-981, August.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    4. Jaydip Sen & Abhishek Dutta & Sidra Mehtab, 2021. "Profitability Analysis in Stock Investment Using an LSTM-Based Deep Learning Model," Papers 2104.06259, arXiv.org.
    5. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I. & Vlastakis, Nikolaos, 2018. "Information demand and stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ananda Chatterjee & Hrisav Bhowmick & Jaydip Sen, 2022. "Stock Volatility Prediction using Time Series and Deep Learning Approach," Papers 2210.02126, arXiv.org.
    2. Jaydip Sen & Subhasis Dasgupta, 2023. "Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Study," Papers 2307.05048, arXiv.org.
    3. Lu, Linna & Lei, Yalin & Yang, Yang & Zheng, Haoqi & Wang, Wen & Meng, Yan & Meng, Chunhong & Zha, Liqiang, 2023. "Assessing nickel sector index volatility based on quantile regression for Garch and Egarch models: Evidence from the Chinese stock market 2018–2022," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Jaydip Sen & Abhishek Dutta, 2022. "Design and Analysis of Optimized Portfolios for Selected Sectors of the Indian Stock Market," Papers 2210.03943, arXiv.org.
    5. Jaydip Sen & Sidra Mehtab & Abhishek Dutta & Saikat Mondal, 2022. "Hierarchical Risk Parity and Minimum Variance Portfolio Design on NIFTY 50 Stocks," Papers 2202.02728, arXiv.org.
    6. Jaydip Sen & Saikat Mondal & Gourab Nath, 2022. "Robust Portfolio Design and Stock Price Prediction Using an Optimized LSTM Model," Papers 2204.01850, arXiv.org.
    7. Ivan Letteri & Giuseppe Della Penna & Giovanni De Gasperis & Abeer Dyoub, 2022. "DNN-ForwardTesting: A New Trading Strategy Validation using Statistical Timeseries Analysis and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2210.11532, arXiv.org.
    8. Jaydip Sen & Arpit Awad & Aaditya Raj & Gourav Ray & Pusparna Chakraborty & Sanket Das & Subhasmita Mishra, 2022. "Stock Performance Evaluation for Portfolio Design from Different Sectors of the Indian Stock Market," Papers 2208.07166, arXiv.org.
    9. Jaydip Sen & Aditya Jaiswal & Anshuman Pathak & Atish Kumar Majee & Kushagra Kumar & Manas Kumar Sarkar & Soubhik Maji, 2023. "A Comparative Analysis of Portfolio Optimization Using Mean-Variance, Hierarchical Risk Parity, and Reinforcement Learning Approaches on the Indian Stock Market," Papers 2305.17523, arXiv.org.
    10. Jaydip Sen & Abhishek Dutta & Sidra Mehtab, 2021. "Stock Portfolio Optimization Using a Deep Learning LSTM Model," Papers 2111.04709, arXiv.org.
    11. Jaydip Sen & Saikat Mondal & Sidra Mehtab, 2021. "Analysis of Sectoral Profitability of the Indian Stock Market Using an LSTM Regression Model," Papers 2111.04976, arXiv.org.
    12. Jaydip Sen & Ashwin Kumar R S & Geetha Joseph & Kaushik Muthukrishnan & Koushik Tulasi & Praveen Varukolu, 2022. "Precise Stock Price Prediction for Robust Portfolio Design from Selected Sectors of the Indian Stock Market," Papers 2201.05570, arXiv.org.
    13. Jaydip Sen & Abhishek Dutta, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Hierarchical Risk Parity Portfolio and Eigen Portfolio on the NIFTY 50 Stocks," Papers 2210.00984, arXiv.org.

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