IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2008.03672.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Natural Disasters Index

Author

Listed:
  • Thilini V. Mahanama
  • Abootaleb Shirvani

Abstract

Natural disasters, such as tornadoes, floods, and wildfire pose risks to life and property, requiring the intervention of insurance corporations. One of the most visible consequences of changing climate is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The relative strengths of these disasters are far beyond the habitual seasonal maxima, often resulting in subsequent increases in property losses. Thus, insurance policies should be modified to endure increasingly volatile catastrophic weather events. We propose a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) for the property losses caused by natural disasters in the United States based on the "Storm Data" published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The proposed NDI is an attempt to construct a financial instrument for hedging the intrinsic risk. The NDI is intended to forecast the degree of future risk that could forewarn the insurers and corporations allowing them to transfer insurance risk to capital market investors. This index could also be modified to other regions and countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2020. "A Natural Disasters Index," Papers 2008.03672, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.03672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.03672
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Gu�gan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option pricing for GARCH-type models with generalized hyperbolic innovations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 1079-1094, April.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4688 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zongxia Liang & Lin He & Jiaoling Wu, 2010. "Optimal Dividend and reinsurance strategy of a Property Insurance Company under Catastrophe Risk," Papers 1009.1269, arXiv.org.
    4. Barry J. Barnett & Olivier Mahul, 2007. "Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-Income Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1241-1247.
    5. A. Alexandre Trindade & Abootaleb Shirvani & Xiaohan Ma, 2020. "A Socioeconomic Well-Being Index," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 48-62, July.
    6. Christensen, Claus Vorm & Schmidli, Hanspeter, 2000. "Pricing catastrophe insurance products based on actually reported claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 189-200, October.
    7. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, December.
    8. Walter Kielholz & Alex Durrer, 1997. "Insurance Derivatives and Securitization: New Hedging Perspectives for the US Cat Insurance Market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-16, January.
    9. Cummins, J. David & Lalonde, David & Phillips, Richard D., 2004. "The basis risk of catastrophic-loss index securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 77-111, January.
    10. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
    11. Almira Biglova & Sergio Ortobelli & Frank J Fabozzi, 2014. "Portfolio selection in the presence of systemic risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(5), pages 285-299, October.
    12. Kunreuther, Howard, 1996. "Mitigating Disaster Losses through Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(2-3), pages 171-187, May.
    13. Vyacheslav Lyubchich & Y. R. Gel, 2017. "Can we weather proof our insurance?," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), March.
    14. Biagini, Francesca & Bregman, Yuliya & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2008. "Pricing of catastrophe insurance options written on a loss index with reestimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 214-222, October.
    15. Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall: A Natural Coherent Alternative to Value at Risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 379-388, July.
    16. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    17. Ganderton, Philip T. & Brookshire, David S. & McKee, Michael & Stewart, Steve & Thurston, Hale, 2000. "Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 271-289, May.
    18. Adam Smith & Jessica Matthews, 2015. "Quantifying uncertainty and variable sensitivity within the US billion-dollar weather and climate disaster cost estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1851, July.
    19. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option Pricing for GARCH-type Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," Post-Print hal-00511965, HAL.
    20. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option Pricing for GARCH-type Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00511965, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses Due to Crime in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses due to Crime in the United States," Papers 2105.03514, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    2. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2023. "The Financial Market of Indices of Socioeconomic Wellbeing," Papers 2303.05654, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhu, Ke & Ling, Shiqing, 2015. "Model-based pricing for financial derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 447-457.
    4. Thisari K. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2023. "The Financial Market of Environmental Indices," Papers 2308.15661, arXiv.org.
    5. Davide Lauria & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Yuan Hu, 2023. "Unifying Market Microstructure and Dynamic Asset Pricing," Papers 2304.02356, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    6. Badescu, Alexandru & Cui, Zhenyu & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2016. "A note on the Wang transform for stochastic volatility pricing models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 189-196.
    7. A. Alexandre Trindade & Abootaleb Shirvani & Xiaohan Ma, 2020. "A Socioeconomic Well-Being Index," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 48-62, July.
    8. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
    9. Larsson, Karl, 2023. "Parametric heat wave insurance," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Empirical Performance of GARCH Models with Heavy-tailed Innovations," EconStor Preprints 167626, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses Due to Crime in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Pang, Xiaochuan & Zhu, Shushang & Cui, Xueting & Ma, Jiali, 2023. "Systemic risk of optioned portfolio: Controllability and optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.
    14. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2015. "Demand for fixed-price multi-year contracts: Experimental evidence from insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 171-194, October.
    15. Pauline Barrieu & Henri Loubergé, 2009. "Hybrid Cat Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 547-578, September.
    16. Shi-jie Jiang & Feiyun Xiang & Iris Yang, 2023. "Effect of Prevention Focus on the Relationships Among Driving Accident History, Risk Perception, and Consumers’ Automobile Insurance Coverage Decisions," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    17. Guégan, Dominique & Ielpo, Florian & Lalaharison, Hanjarivo, 2013. "Option pricing with discrete time jump processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2417-2445.
    18. Mark Browne & Christian Knoller & Andreas Richter, 2015. "Behavioral bias and the demand for bicycle and flood insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 141-160, April.
    19. Michèle Cohen & Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva, 2008. "Dynamic Decision Making when Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 173-192, March.
    20. Liu, Xianglin & Tang, Yingmei & Miranda, Mario J., 2015. "Does Past Experience in Natural Disasters Affect Willingness-to-Pay for Weather Index Insurance? Evidence from China," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205374, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.03672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.