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Mid-price estimation for European corporate bonds: a particle filtering approach

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  • Olivier Gu'eant
  • Jiang Pu

Abstract

In most illiquid markets, there is no obvious proxy for the market price of an asset. The European corporate bond market is an archetypal example of such an illiquid market where mid-prices can only be estimated with a statistical model. In this OTC market, dealers / market makers only have access, indeed, to partial information about the market. In real time, they know the price associated with their trades on the dealer-to-dealer (D2D) and dealer-to-client (D2C) markets, they know the result of the requests for quotes (RFQ) they answered, and they have access to composite prices (e.g., Bloomberg CBBT). This paper presents a Bayesian method for estimating the mid-price of corporate bonds by using the real-time information available to a dealer. This method relies on recent ideas coming from the particle filtering / sequential Monte-Carlo literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Gu'eant & Jiang Pu, 2018. "Mid-price estimation for European corporate bonds: a particle filtering approach," Papers 1810.05884, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1810.05884
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Jean-David Fermanian & Olivier Guéant & Jiang Pu, 2016. "The behavior of dealers and clients on the European corporate bond market: the case of Multi-Dealer-to-Client platforms," Working Papers hal-01393134, HAL.
    5. Jean-David Fermanian & Olivier Guéant & Jiang Pu, 2016. "The behavior of dealers and clients on the European corporate bond market: the case of Multi-Dealer-to-Client platforms," Working Papers 2016-34, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
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