IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1801.05770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank

Author

Listed:
  • Anas Yassine

    (MSFGR)

  • Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul

Abstract

This article aims to explore an empirical approach to analyze the macroeconomicsdeterminants of default of borrowers. For this purpose, we have measured the impact of the adverse economic conditions on the degradation of the credit portfolio quality.In our paper, we have shed more light on the question of the aggravation of default rate. For this, we have undertaken econometric modeling of the default rate distribution of a Moroccan bank while we inspired from some studies carried out. Our findings demonstrate that the decline in the economic situation has a positive impact on default of borrowers. Hence, the bank also has responsibility for monitoring the adverse economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anas Yassine & Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul, 2018. "The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank," Papers 1801.05770, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1801.05770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.05770
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emery, Kenneth M. & Cantor, Richard, 2005. "Relative default rates on corporate loans and bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1575-1584, June.
    2. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    3. Lee, C Jevons, 1981. "The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1187-1189, December.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu, 2003. "Determinants of credit card delinquency and bankruptcy: Macroeconomic factors," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 75-84, March.
    5. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541, September.
    6. John M. Mulvey & Stavros A. Zenios, 1994. "Capturing the Correlations of Fixed-income Instruments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(10), pages 1329-1342, October.
    7. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2011. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1984-2000, August.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    9. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    10. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr & Wolff, Eric D, 1989. " Original Issue High Yield Bonds: Aging Analyses of Defaults, Exchanges, and Calls," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 923-952, September.
    11. Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2009. "The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana," MPRA Paper 53128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anas Yassine & Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul & Nawal Snoussi & Zakaria Benjouid, 2017. "The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank [Les déterminants macroéconomiques de la défaillance des emprunteurs : Le cas d'une banque marocaine]," Working Papers hal-01683225, HAL.
    2. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    3. Dinh, K. & Kleimeier, S., 2006. "Credit scoring for Vietnam's retail banking market : implementation and implications for transactional versus relationship lending," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Simon Cornée, 2014. "Soft Information and Default Prediction in Cooperative and Social Banks," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 89-103, June.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    6. Rasa Kanapickiene & Renatas Spicas, 2019. "Credit Risk Assessment Model for Small and Micro-Enterprises: The Case of Lithuania," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Richard Chamboko & Jorge M. Bravo, 2016. "On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 264-287, December.
    8. Dinh, Thi Huyen Thanh & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2007. "A credit scoring model for Vietnam's retail banking market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 471-495.
    9. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2015. "How is credit scoring used to predict default in China?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Doruk Şen & Cem Çağrı Dönmez & Umman Mahir Yıldırım, 2020. "A Hybrid Bi-level Metaheuristic for Credit Scoring," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 1009-1019, October.
    11. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
    12. Juan Laborda & Seyong Ryoo, 2021. "Feature Selection in a Credit Scoring Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    14. Hussein A. Abdou & John Pointon, 2011. "Credit Scoring, Statistical Techniques And Evaluation Criteria: A Review Of The Literature," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2-3), pages 59-88, April.
    15. Kasper Regenburg & Morten Nicklas Bigler Seitz, 2021. "Criminals, bankruptcy, and cost of debt," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1004-1045, September.
    16. Rais Ahmad Itoo & A. Selvarasu & José António Filipe, 2015. "Loan Products and Credit Scoring by Commercial Banks (India)," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(1), pages 851-851.
    17. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    18. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    19. Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms' Default in the Czech Republic [Makroekonomické determinanty úpadku firem v České republice]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
    20. Carling , Kenneth & Lundberg, Sofia, 2002. "Bank Lending, Geographical Distance, and Credit risk: An Empirical Assessment of the Church Tower Principle," Working Paper Series 144, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1801.05770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.