IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1710.07470.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Profitability of simple stationary technical trading rules with high-frequency data of Chinese Index Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Jing-Chao Chen
  • Yu Zhou
  • Xi Wang

Abstract

Technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets for a long time. The profitability remains controversial and few consider the stationarity of technical indicators used in trading rules. We convert MA, KDJ and Bollinger bands into stationary processes and investigate the profitability of these trading rules by using 3 high-frequency data(15s,30s and 60s) of CSI300 Stock Index Futures from January 4th 2012 to December 31st 2016. Several performance and risk measures are adopted to assess the practical value of all trading rules directly while ADF-test is used to verify the stationarity and SPA test to check whether trading rules perform well due to intrinsic superiority or pure luck. The results show that there are several significant combinations of parameters for each indicator when transaction costs are not taken into consideration. Once transaction costs are included, trading profits will be eliminated completely. We also propose a method to reduce the risk of technical trading rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing-Chao Chen & Yu Zhou & Xi Wang, 2017. "Profitability of simple stationary technical trading rules with high-frequency data of Chinese Index Futures," Papers 1710.07470, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1710.07470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.07470
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wong, Wing-Keung & Du, Jun & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2005. "Do the technical indicators reward chartists? A study on the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23.
    2. Yu, Hao & Nartea, Gilbert V. & Gan, Christopher & Yao, Lee J., 2013. "Predictive ability and profitability of simple technical trading rules: Recent evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 356-371.
    3. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
    4. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Hong & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Li, Sai-Ping & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2015. "Profitability of simple technical trading rules of Chinese stock exchange indexes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 439(C), pages 75-84.
    2. Luís Lobato Macedo & Pedro Godinho & Maria João Alves, 2020. "A Comparative Study of Technical Trading Strategies Using a Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 349-381, January.
    3. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    4. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
    6. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    8. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 221-243, December.
    9. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    10. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    11. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    12. Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2006. "In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 150, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    14. Ueli Mettler & Markus Thöny & Hansjörg Schmidt, 2010. "Carry and trend strategies in FX markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(5), pages 321-331, December.
    15. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    16. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-6.
    17. Christian Müller, 2006. "Further results on monopolistic competition, markup pricing and the business cycle in Switzerland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 755-776, September.
    18. Assogba, Noel Perceval & Zhang, Daowei, 2022. "The conservation reserve program and timber prices in the southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    20. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "The relationship between input-factor and output prices in commodity industries: The case of Norwegian salmon aquaculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 35-47.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1710.07470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.