IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1605.04219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empowering cash managers to achieve cost savings by improving predictive accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Salas-Molina
  • Francisco J. Martin
  • Juan A. Rodr'iguez-Aguilar
  • Joan Serr`a
  • Josep Ll. Arcos

Abstract

Cash management is concerned with optimizing the short-term funding requirements of a company. To this end, different optimization strategies have been proposed to minimize costs using daily cash flow forecasts as the main input to the models. However, the effect of the accuracy of such forecasts on cash management policies has not been studied. In this article, using two real data sets from the textile industry, we show that predictive accuracy is highly correlated with cost savings when using daily forecasts in cash management models. A new method is proposed to help cash managers estimate if efforts in improving predictive accuracy are proportionally rewarded by cost savings. Our results imply the need for an analysis of potential cost savings derived from improving predictive accuracy. From that, the search for better forecasting models is in place to improve cash management.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Salas-Molina & Francisco J. Martin & Juan A. Rodr'iguez-Aguilar & Joan Serr`a & Josep Ll. Arcos, 2016. "Empowering cash managers to achieve cost savings by improving predictive accuracy," Papers 1605.04219, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.04219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1605.04219
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stone, Bernell K., 1973. "Cash Planning and Credit-Line Determination With a Financial Statement Simulator: A Case Report on Short-Term Financial Planning," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(5), pages 711-729, December.
    2. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    3. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
    4. Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
    5. Moraes, Marcelo Botelho da Costa & Nagano, Marcelo Seido, 2014. "Evolutionary models in cash management policies with multiple assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-7.
    6. Penttinen, Markku J., 1991. "Myopic and stationary solutions for stochastic cash balance problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 155-166, May.
    7. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
    8. Merton H. Miller & Daniel Orr, 1966. "A Model of the Demand for Money by Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(3), pages 413-435.
    9. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    10. Laukaitis, Algirdas, 2008. "Functional data analysis for cash flow and transactions intensity continuous-time prediction using Hilbert-valued autoregressive processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1607-1614, March.
    11. Daellenbach, Hans G., 1974. "Are Cash Management Optimization Models Worthwhile?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 607-626, September.
    12. Srinivasan, Venkat & Kim, Yong H, 1986. "Deterministic cash flow management: State of the art and research directions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 145-166.
    13. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    14. Miller, Tom W. & Stone, Bernell K., 1985. "Daily Cash Forecasting and Seasonal Resolution: Alternative Models and Techniques for Using the Distribution Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 335-351, September.
    15. Jurgen A. Doornik, 2008. "Encompassing and Automatic Model Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 915-925, December.
    16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    17. Gormley, Fionnuala M. & Meade, Nigel, 2007. "The utility of cash flow forecasts in the management of corporate cash balances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 923-935, October.
    18. Nadia Makary Girgis, 1968. "Optimal Cash Balance Levels," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 130-140, November.
    19. Eppen, Gary D & Fama, Eugene F, 1969. "Cash Balance and Simple Dynamic Portfolio Problems with Proportional Costs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 119-133, June.
    20. Gregory, Geoffrey, 1976. "Cash flow models: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 4(6), pages 643-656.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Salas-Molina, 2024. "Fitting random cash management models to data," Papers 2401.08548, arXiv.org.
    2. Francisco Salas-Molina, 2020. "Risk-sensitive control of cash management systems," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 1159-1176, June.
    3. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar & Montserrat Guillen, 2023. "A multidimensional review of the cash management problem," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Schroeder, Pascal & Kacem, Imed, 2020. "Competitive difference analysis of the cash management problem with uncertain demands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 1183-1192.
    5. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodriguez-Aguilar & David Pla-Santamaria, 2020. "A stochastic goal programming model to derive stable cash management policies," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 333-346, February.
    6. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodr'iguez-Aguilar & Pablo D'iaz-Garc'ia, 2017. "PyCaMa: Python for cash management," Papers 1702.05005, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    7. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar, 2018. "Data-driven multiobjective decision-making in cash management," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 77-91, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar & Montserrat Guillen, 2023. "A multidimensional review of the cash management problem," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Francisco Salas-Molina & David Pla-Santamaria & Juan A. Rodriguez-Aguilar, 2018. "A multi-objective approach to the cash management problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 515-529, August.
    3. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodr'iguez-Aguilar & Joan Serr`a & Montserrat Guillen & Francisco J. Martin, 2016. "Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time series and its implications for forecasting," Papers 1611.04941, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    4. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar, 2018. "Data-driven multiobjective decision-making in cash management," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 77-91, June.
    5. Francisco Salas-Molina, 2024. "Fitting random cash management models to data," Papers 2401.08548, arXiv.org.
    6. Francisco Salas-Molina, 2020. "Risk-sensitive control of cash management systems," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 1159-1176, June.
    7. Hinderer, K. & Waldmann, K. -H., 2001. "Cash management in a randomly varying environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 468-485, May.
    8. Marcos Melo & Feruccio Bilich, 2013. "Expectancy balance model for cash flow," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 240-252, April.
    9. Yonit Barron, 2022. "A probabilistic approach to the stochastic fluid cash management balance problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 607-645, May.
    10. Gormley, Fionnuala M. & Meade, Nigel, 2007. "The utility of cash flow forecasts in the management of corporate cash balances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 923-935, October.
    11. Schroeder, Pascal & Kacem, Imed, 2020. "Competitive difference analysis of the cash management problem with uncertain demands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 1183-1192.
    12. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Roberto Robatto, 2019. "Cost of Inflation in Inventory Theoretical Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 206-226, April.
    13. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    14. Moraes, Marcelo Botelho da Costa & Nagano, Marcelo Seido, 2014. "Evolutionary models in cash management policies with multiple assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-7.
    15. Bolton, Patrick & Li, Ye & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2020. "Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits," Working Paper Series 2020-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    16. Juliana Nascimento & Warren Powell, 2010. "Dynamic Programming Models and Algorithms for the Mutual Fund Cash Balance Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 801-815, May.
    17. García Cabello, Julia & Lobillo, F.J., 2017. "Sound branch cash management for less: A low-cost forecasting algorithm under uncertain demand," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 118-134.
    18. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    19. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodriguez-Aguilar & David Pla-Santamaria & Ana García-Bernabeu, 2021. "On the formal foundations of cash management systems," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 1081-1095, June.
    20. Suvanto, Antti, . "Foreign Exchange Dealing. Essays on the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 19.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.04219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.