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Kriging Metamodels and Experimental Design for Bermudan Option Pricing

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  • Michael Ludkovski

Abstract

We investigate two new strategies for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems within the Regression Monte Carlo (RMC) framework of Longstaff and Schwartz. First, we propose the use of stochastic kriging (Gaussian process) meta-models for fitting the continuation value. Kriging offers a flexible, nonparametric regression approach that quantifies approximation quality. Second, we connect the choice of stochastic grids used in RMC to the Design of Experiments paradigm. We examine space-filling and adaptive experimental designs; we also investigate the use of batching with replicated simulations at design sites to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. Numerical case studies for valuing Bermudan Puts and Max-Calls under a variety of asset dynamics illustrate that our methods offer significant reduction in simulation budgets over existing approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ludkovski, 2015. "Kriging Metamodels and Experimental Design for Bermudan Option Pricing," Papers 1509.02179, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.02179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Fouque,Jean-Pierre & Papanicolaou,George & Sircar,Ronnie & Sølna,Knut, 2011. "Multiscale Stochastic Volatility for Equity, Interest Rate, and Credit Derivatives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843584, January.
    3. Denis Belomestny & Fabian Dickmann & Tigran Nagapetyan, 2013. "Pricing American options via multi-level approximation methods," Papers 1303.1334, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    4. W C M van Beers & J P C Kleijnen, 2003. "Kriging for interpolation in random simulation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(3), pages 255-262, March.
    5. Michael Kohler, 2008. "A regression-based smoothing spline Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing American options in discrete time," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(2), pages 153-178, May.
    6. Bruce Ankenman & Barry L. Nelson & Jeremy Staum, 2010. "Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 371-382, April.
    7. Christian Bender & Anastasia Kolodko & John Schoenmakers, 2008. "Enhanced policy iteration for American options via scenario selection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 135-146.
    8. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Convergence of the Least Squares Monte Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1193-1203, September.
    9. Jack P.C. Kleijnen, 2015. "Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-319-18087-8, December.
    10. Roustant, Olivier & Ginsbourger, David & Deville, Yves, 2012. "DiceKriging, DiceOptim: Two R Packages for the Analysis of Computer Experiments by Kriging-Based Metamodeling and Optimization," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 51(i01).
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11523 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pascal L�tourneau & Lars Stentoft, 2014. "Refining the least squares Monte Carlo method by imposing structure," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 495-507, March.
    13. Kin Hung (Felix) Kan & R. Mark Reesor, 2012. "Bias Reduction for Pricing American Options by Least-Squares Monte Carlo," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 195-217, July.
    14. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Phelim P. Boyle & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Ken Seng Tan, 2013. "Pricing Bermudan options using low-discrepancy mesh methods," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 841-860, May.
    16. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 129-168, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kentaro Hoshisashi & Yuji Yamada, 2023. "Pricing Multi-Asset Bermudan Commodity Options with Stochastic Volatility Using Neural Networks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, March.

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