IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v44y2024i8p1404-1428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Leave‐one‐out least squares Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing Bermudan options

Author

Listed:
  • Jeechul Woo
  • Chenru Liu
  • Jaehyuk Choi

Abstract

The least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is widely used for pricing Bermudan options. The LSM estimator contains undesirable look‐ahead bias, and the conventional technique of avoiding it requires additional simulation paths. We present the leave‐one‐out LSM (LOOLSM) algorithm to eliminate look‐ahead bias without doubling simulations. We also show that look‐ahead bias is asymptotically proportional to the regressors‐to‐paths ratio. Our findings are demonstrated with several option examples in which the LSM algorithm overvalues the options. The LOOLSM method can be extended to other regression‐based algorithms that improve the LSM method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeechul Woo & Chenru Liu & Jaehyuk Choi, 2024. "Leave‐one‐out least squares Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing Bermudan options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1404-1428, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:8:p:1404-1428
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22515
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22515?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farshid Jamshidian, 1997. "LIBOR and swap market models and measures (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 293-330.
    2. Mark Joshi & Riccardo Rebonato, 2003. "A displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility LIBOR market model: motivation, definition and implementation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 458-469.
    3. Daniel Z. Zanger, 2018. "Convergence Of A Least†Squares Monte Carlo Algorithm For American Option Pricing With Dependent Sample Data," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 447-479, January.
    4. Boyle, Phelim P & Evnine, Jeremy & Gibbs, Stephen, 1989. "Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Contingent Claims," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 241-250.
    5. Boyle, Phelim P., 1988. "A Lattice Framework for Option Pricing with Two State Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, March.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1977. "The Valuation of American Put Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 449-462, May.
    7. Alfredo Ibáñez & Carlos Velasco, 2018. "The optimal method for pricing Bermudan options by simulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 1143-1180, October.
    8. Anastasia Kolodko & John Schoenmakers, 2006. "Iterative construction of the optimal Bermudan stopping time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 27-49, January.
    9. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Margot, François & Secomandi, Nicola, 2017. "Comparison of least squares Monte Carlo methods with applications to energy real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 196-204.
    10. Yao Tung Huang & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2016. "Regression-based Monte Carlo methods for stochastic control models: variable annuities with lifelong guarantees," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 905-928, June.
    11. Anna Rita Bacinello & Enrico Biffis & Pietro Millossovich, 2010. "Regression-based algorithms for life insurance contracts with surrender guarantees," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1077-1090.
    12. Pascal L�tourneau & Lars Stentoft, 2014. "Refining the least squares Monte Carlo method by imposing structure," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 495-507, March.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Paletta, Tommaso & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "An improved least squares Monte Carlo valuation method based on heteroscedasticity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 698-706.
    15. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 129-168, August.
    16. Leif Andersen & Mark Broadie, 2004. "Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1222-1234, September.
    17. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    18. Beveridge, Christopher & Joshi, Mark & Tang, Robert, 2013. "Practical policy iteration: Generic methods for obtaining rapid and tight bounds for Bermudan exotic derivatives using Monte Carlo simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1342-1361.
    19. He, Hua, 1990. "Convergence from Discrete- to Continuous-Time Contingent Claims Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 523-546.
    20. Alan Brace & Dariusz G¸atarek & Marek Musiela, 1997. "The Market Model of Interest Rate Dynamics," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 127-155, April.
    21. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Convergence of the Least Squares Monte Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1193-1203, September.
    22. Philip Protter & Emmanuelle Clément & Damien Lamberton, 2002. "An analysis of a least squares regression method for American option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 449-471.
    23. Martin B. Haugh & Leonid Kogan, 2004. "Pricing American Options: A Duality Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 258-270, April.
    24. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    25. Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
    26. Denis Belomestny, 2011. "Pricing Bermudan options by nonparametric regression: optimal rates of convergence for lower estimates," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 655-683, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Wei & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Generic improvements to least squares monte carlo methods with applications to optimal stopping problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1132-1144.
    2. Leif Andersen & Mark Broadie, 2004. "Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1222-1234, September.
    3. Lars Stentoft, 2013. "American option pricing using simulation with an application to the GARCH model," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 5, pages 114-147, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Ravi Kashyap, 2022. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1175-1215, August.
    5. Chen Liu & Henry Schellhorn & Qidi Peng, 2019. "American Option Pricing With Regression: Convergence Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Maciej Klimek & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "The least squares method for option pricing revisited," Papers 1404.7438, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    7. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    8. Li, Chenxu & Ye, Yongxin, 2019. "Pricing and Exercising American Options: an Asymptotic Expansion Approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Papers 1609.01274, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    10. Nan Chen & Yanchu Liu, 2014. "American Option Sensitivities Estimation via a Generalized Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 616-632, June.
    11. Jin, Xing & Yang, Cheng-Yu, 2016. "Efficient estimation of lower and upper bounds for pricing higher-dimensional American arithmetic average options by approximating their payoff functions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 65-77.
    12. R. Mark Reesor & T. James Marshall, 2020. "Forest of Stochastic Trees: A Method for Valuing Multiple Exercise Options," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-31, May.
    13. Denis Belomestny & Grigori Milstein & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2009. "Regression methods in pricing American and Bermudan options using consumption processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 315-327.
    14. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    15. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Pederzoli, Paola & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Early Exercise Decision in American Options with Dividends, Stochastic Volatility, and Jumps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 331-356, February.
    16. Antonio Cosma & Stefano Galluccio & Paola Pederzoli & O. Scaillet, 2012. "Valuing American Options Using Fast Recursive Projections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
    17. Yi Yang & Jianan Wang & Youhua Chen & Zhiyuan Chen & Yanchu Liu, 2020. "Optimal procurement strategies for contractual assembly systems with fluctuating procurement price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 1027-1059, August.
    18. Nelson Areal & Artur Rodrigues & Manuel Armada, 2008. "On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151, March.
    19. Berridge, S.J. & Schumacher, J.M., 2002. "An Irregular Grid Approach for Pricing High Dimensional American Options," Discussion Paper 2002-99, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Maier, Sebastian & Pflug, Georg C. & Polak, John W., 2020. "Valuing portfolios of interdependent real options under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 133-147.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:8:p:1404-1428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.