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Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

  • Alexander Jordan
  • Alex Lenkoski
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    We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). While direct evaluation of modelprobabilities is intractable in this setting, we show that by using conditional Bayes Factors, which nest model moves inside a Gibbs sampler, we are able to incorporate model uncertainty in a straight-forward fashion. We conclude with a study of global FDI flows between 1988-2000.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.2501
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1205.2501.

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    Date of creation: May 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.2501
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies, 2001. "The Effects of Bilateral Tax Treaties on U.S. FDI Activity," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jan 2001.
    9. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    10. John H Dunning, 1980. "Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 9-31, March.
    11. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Davies, Ronald B. & Waddell, Glen R. & Naughton, Helen T., 2007. "FDI in space: Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1303-1325, July.
    12. Yasuhiro Omori, 2007. "Efficient Gibbs Sampler for Bayesian Analysis of a Sample Selection Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-481, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Chib, Siddhartha, 2007. "Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 401-412, October.
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