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Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

  • Alexander Jordan
  • Alex Lenkoski
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    We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). While direct evaluation of modelprobabilities is intractable in this setting, we show that by using conditional Bayes Factors, which nest model moves inside a Gibbs sampler, we are able to incorporate model uncertainty in a straight-forward fashion. We conclude with a study of global FDI flows between 1988-2000.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.2501
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1205.2501.

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    Date of creation: May 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.2501
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. James R. Markusen, 1997. "Trade versus Investment Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 6231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, 08.
    3. Omori, Yasuhiro, 2007. "Efficient Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of a sample selection model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(12), pages 1300-1311, July.
    4. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Davies, Ronald B. & Waddell, Glen R. & Naughton, Helen T., 2007. "FDI in space: Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1303-1325, July.
    5. Markusen, James R., 1984. "Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 205-226, May.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-71, June.
    8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies, 2004. "The Effects of Bilateral Tax Treaties on U.S. FDI Activity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 601-622, 09.
    9. Chib, Siddhartha, 2007. "Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 401-412, October.
    10. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Hui Tong, 2008. "Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(3), pages 451-470, September.
    12. McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
    13. John H Dunning, 1980. "Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 9-31, March.
    14. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
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