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On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection

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  • Giacomo Livan
  • Jun-ichi Inoue
  • Enrico Scalas

Abstract

We investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time series provides better, more accurate, correlation estimates. Then, we investigate the possible consequences of instabilities in empirical correlation coefficient measurements on optimal portfolio selection. We rely on previously published works which provide a framework allowing to take into account possible risk underestimations due to the non-optimality of the portfolio weights being used in order to distinguish such non-optimality effects from risk underestimations genuinely due to non-stationarities. We interpret such results in terms of instabilities in some spectral properties of portfolio correlation matrices.

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  • Giacomo Livan & Jun-ichi Inoue & Enrico Scalas, 2012. "On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection," Papers 1205.0877, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.0877
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Nicol'o Musmeci & Tomaso Aste & Tiziana Di Matteo, 2014. "Risk diversification: a study of persistence with a filtered correlation-network approach," Papers 1410.5621, arXiv.org.
    5. Douglas Castilho & Tharsis T. P. Souza & Soong Moon Kang & Jo~ao Gama & Andr'e C. P. L. F. de Carvalho, 2021. "Forecasting Financial Market Structure from Network Features using Machine Learning," Papers 2110.11751, arXiv.org.
    6. Li, Yan & Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Tian, Yue & Li, Sai-Ping & Zheng, Bo, 2019. "Portfolio optimization based on network topology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 671-681.
    7. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha & Dowling, Michael & Bouraoui, Taoufik, 2021. "From bottom ten to top ten: The role of cryptocurrencies in enhancing portfolio return of poorly performing stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Raddant, Matthias & Wagner, Friedrich, 2013. "Phase transition in the S&P stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1846, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Ponta, Linda & Trinh, Mailan & Raberto, Marco & Scalas, Enrico & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Modeling non-stationarities in high-frequency financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 173-196.
    10. Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda & Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Are Random Trading Strategies More Successful than Technical Ones?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    11. Gidea, Marian & Goldsmith, Daniel & Katz, Yuri & Roldan, Pablo & Shmalo, Yonah, 2020. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    12. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    13. Polanco-Martínez, J.M. & Fernández-Macho, J. & Neumann, M.B. & Faria, S.H., 2018. "A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1211-1227.
    14. A. E. Biondo & A. Pluchino & A. Rapisarda & D. Helbing, 2013. "Are random trading strategies more successful than technical ones?," Papers 1303.4351, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    15. Marcaccioli, Riccardo & Livan, Giacomo, 2020. "Maximum entropy approach to multivariate time series randomization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115284, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Chakrabarti, Arnab & Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2020. "Fractional Differencing: (In)stability of Spectral Structure and Risk Measures of Financial Networks," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.

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