IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1105.5891.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The "S" Curve Relationship between Export Diversity and Economic Size of Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lunchao Hu
  • Kailan Tian
  • Xin Wang
  • Jiang Zhang

Abstract

The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor countries always export very few kinds of products as we expect. Second, once the economic size (GDP) of a country is beyond a threshold, its export diversity may increase dramatically. However, this is not the case for rich countries because a ceiling on the export diversity is observed when their GDPs are higher than another threshold. This pattern is very stable for different years although the concrete parameters of the fitting sigmoid functions may change with time. In addition, we also discussed other relationships such as import diversity with respect to logarithmic GDP, diversity of exporters with respect to the number of export goods etc., all of these relationships show S-shaped or power law patterns. Although this paper does not explain the origin of the S-shaped curve, it may provide a basic empirical fact and insights for economic diversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Lunchao Hu & Kailan Tian & Xin Wang & Jiang Zhang, 2011. "The "S" Curve Relationship between Export Diversity and Economic Size of Countries," Papers 1105.5891, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1105.5891
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1105.5891
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    2. Templet, Paul H., 1999. "Energy, diversity and development in economic systems; an empirical analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 223-233, August.
    3. Sara Johansson & Charlie Karlsson, 2007. "R&D accessibility and regional export diversity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 41(3), pages 501-523, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongmei Lei & Ying Chen & Ruiqi Li & Deli He & Jiang Zhang, 2015. "Maximum Entropy for the International Division of Labor," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Lunchao & Tian, Kailan & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Jiang, 2012. "The “S” curve relationship between export diversity and economic size of countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 731-739.
    2. Safarzynska, Karolina, 2017. "The Implications of Industrial Development for Diversification of Fuels," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 37-46.
    3. Rui Faustino, 2016. "Portuguese National Accounts: a network approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/18, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Arnarson, Björn Thor, 2020. "The superstar and the followers: Intra-firm product complementarity in international trade," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 277-304.
    5. Marcel Bednarz & Tom Broekel, 2020. "Pulled or pushed? The spatial diffusion of wind energy between local demand and supply [Constructing regional advantage: platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge base," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 893-916.
    6. Pier-Paolo Saviotti & Andreas Pyka¤ & Bogang Jun, 0. "Diversification, structural change, and economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    7. Kharrazi, Ali & Sato, Masahiro & Yarime, Masaru & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Yu, Yadong & Kraines, Steven, 2015. "Examining the resilience of national energy systems: Measurements of diversity in production-based and consumption-based electricity in the globalization of trade networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 455-464.
    8. Mikhail Y. Afanasyev & Alexander V. Kudrov, 2021. "Economic Complexity, Embedding Degree and Adjacent Diversity of the Regional Economies," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(2), pages 7-22.
    9. Wagner, Rodrigo & Zahler, Andrés, 2015. "New exports from emerging markets: Do followers benefit from pioneers?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 203-223.
    10. Edurne Magro Montero & Mari Jose Aranguren & Mikel Navarro, 2011. "Smart Specialisation Strategies: The Case of the Basque Country," Working Papers 2011R07, Orkestra - Basque Institute of Competitiveness.
    11. Matthijs J. Janssen, 2015. "Cross-specialization: A New Perspective on Industry Policy," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1519, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jun 2015.
    12. Jacob Rubæk Holm & Christian Richter Østergaard, 2018. "The high importance of de-industrialization and job polarization for regional diversification," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1821, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised May 2018.
    13. Dany Bahar & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati, 2019. "Does Birthplace Diversity Affect Economic Complexity ? Cross-Country Evidence," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    15. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "Using complex networks analysis to assess the evolution of international economic integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 215-239.
    16. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2020. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multi-country agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2020/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    18. Andrea Flori & Fabrizio Lillo & Fabio Pammolli & Alessandro Spelta, 2021. "Better to stay apart: asset commonality, bipartite network centrality, and investment strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 177-213, April.
    19. Benno Ferrarini, 2013. "Vertical Trade Maps," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 105-123, June.
    20. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1105.5891. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.