Scale invariant properties of public debt growth
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme poverty in the world is closely connected to the study of extremely poor debtor nations. We analyze the time evolution of national public debt and find "convergence": initially less-indebted countries increase their debt more quickly than initially more-indebted countries. We also analyze the public debt-to-GDP ratio R, a proxy for default risk, and approximate the probability density function P(R) with a Gamma distribution, which can be used to establish thresholds for sustainable debt. We also observe "convergence" in R: countries with initially small R increase their R more quickly than countries with initially large R. The scaling relationships for debt and R have practical applications, e.g. the Maastricht Treaty requires members of the European Monetary Union to maintain R
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
- Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988.
"The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
- Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991.
"Convergence Across States and Regions,"
629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Alessandro Missale & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991.
"The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity,"
NBER Working Papers
3944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1996.
"Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study,"
NBER Working Papers
5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, June.
- Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992.
"Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-59, November.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996.
"The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-36, July.
- Sala-i-martin, X., 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Papers 734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "The classical approach to convergence analysis," Economics Working Papers 117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006.
"Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6710, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
- Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
- Ausloos, M. & Lambiotte, R., 2007. "Clusters or networks of economies? A macroeconomy study through Gross Domestic Product," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 16-21.
- C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza & Camil F.S. Campos, 2006.
"The Unexplained Part of Public Debt,"
Research Department Publications
4449, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
- Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati & Edoardo Gaffeo, 2003. "Power Law Scaling in the World Income Distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(6), pages 1-7.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1002.2491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.