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The impact of uncertainties on the pricing of contingent claims

  • Simone Scotti
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    We study the effect of parameters uncertainties on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, thanks to Dirichlet Forms methods. We apply recent techniques, developed by Bouleau, to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivities of SDE trajectories with respect to parameter perturbations. We show that this model can reproduce a bid-ask spread. We also prove that, if the stochastic differential equation admits a closed form representation, also the sensitivities have closed form representations. We exhibit the case of log-normal diffusion and we show that this framework foresees a smiled implied volatility surface coherent with historical data.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1001.5202
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1001.5202.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1001.5202
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    2. Kramkov, D.O., 1994. "Optional decomposition of supermartingales and hedging contingent claims in incomplete security markets," Discussion Paper Serie B 294, University of Bonn, Germany.
    3. Richard Rouge & Nicole El Karoui, 2000. "Pricing Via Utility Maximization and Entropy," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 259-276.
    4. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
    5. Luca Regis & Simone Scotti, 2008. "Risk Premium Impact in the Perturbative Black Scholes Model," Papers 0806.0307, arXiv.org.
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