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Asset Pricing under uncertainty

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  • Simone Scotti

    (LPMA)

Abstract

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, using methods from the theory of Dirichlet forms. We apply these techniques to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivity of SDE trajectories with respect to parameter perturbations. We show that this analysis can justify endogenously the presence of a bid-ask spread on the option prices. We also prove that if the stochastic differential equation admits a closed form representation then the sensitivities have closed form representations. We examine the case of log-normal diffusion and we show that this framework leads to a smiled implied volatility surface coherent with historical data.

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  • Simone Scotti, 2012. "Asset Pricing under uncertainty," Papers 1203.5664, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.5664
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Rouge & Nicole El Karoui, 2000. "Pricing Via Utility Maximization and Entropy," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 259-276, April.
    2. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
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    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    6. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
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