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Asset Pricing under uncertainty


  • Simone Scotti



We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, using methods from the theory of Dirichlet forms. We apply these techniques to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivity of SDE trajectories with respect to parameter perturbations. We show that this analysis can justify endogenously the presence of a bid-ask spread on the option prices. We also prove that if the stochastic differential equation admits a closed form representation then the sensitivities have closed form representations. We examine the case of log-normal diffusion and we show that this framework leads to a smiled implied volatility surface coherent with historical data.

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  • Simone Scotti, 2012. "Asset Pricing under uncertainty," Papers 1203.5664,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.5664

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    2. Kramkov, D.O., 1994. "Optional decomposition of supermartingales and hedging contingent claims in incomplete security markets," Discussion Paper Serie B 294, University of Bonn, Germany.
    3. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    4. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
    5. Richard Rouge & Nicole El Karoui, 2000. "Pricing Via Utility Maximization and Entropy," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 259-276.
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