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Yield Curve Shapes and the Asymptotic Short Rate Distribution in Affine One-Factor Models

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  • Martin Keller-Ressel
  • Thomas Steiner

Abstract

We consider a model for interest rates, where the short rate is given by a time-homogenous, one-dimensional affine process in the sense of Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer. We show that in such a model yield curves can only be normal, inverse or humped (i.e. endowed with a single local maximum). Each case can be characterized by simple conditions on the present short rate. We give conditions under which the short rate process will converge to a limit distribution and describe the limit distribution in terms of its cumulant generating function. We apply our results to the Vasicek model, the CIR model, a CIR model with added jumps and a model of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type.

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  • Martin Keller-Ressel & Thomas Steiner, 2007. "Yield Curve Shapes and the Asymptotic Short Rate Distribution in Affine One-Factor Models," Papers 0704.0567, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0704.0567
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466, October.
    2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Sato, Ken-iti & Yamazato, Makoto, 1984. "Operator-selfdecomposable distributions as limit distributions of processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 73-100, May.
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