Drivers of Fertilizer Markets: Supply, Demand, and Prices

U.S. fertilizer production and consumption—crucial for the productivity of U.S. agriculture—take place within a global fertilizer market. The fertilizer price increases of 2021–22, driven by a set of national and global market events, pushed U.S. fertilizer costs per acre for corn and wheat in 2022 to more than double their levels in 2020. This study analyzes U.S. fertilizer production, consumption, and trade from 2006 (the last full year preceding the Great Recession) to 2023. Relative to 2006, U.S. fertilizer consumption and production have declined. Over the study period, U.S. nitrogen fertilizer consumption remained higher than phosphate and potash fertilizer consumption combined. Whereas phosphate fertilizer was once the main fertilizer produced in the United States, nitrogen fertilizer now makes up the largest share of production, while potash fertilizer made up 2 percent or less of total U.S. fertilizer production throughout the period. While global production and trade in fertilizer have increased, the U.S. share of world fertilizer production, imports, and exports have each declined by 25 percent or more since 2006.