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Estimating the impact of quantitative export restrictions on agricultural trade and prices

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  • Estrades, Carmen
  • Beckman, Jayson
  • Aguiar, Angel

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of quantitative export restrictions (QER) on global agricultural trade. To do so, we use a global CGE model to simulate the complete removal of QER, and compare results with a complete elimination of export taxes. QER are introduced in the CGE framework in the form of ad-valorem equivalent rates, which are also estimated in this paper. We estimate the ad-valorem equivalents (AVE) of QER for all countries applying the measures at the tariff line level following Kee et al. (2009)’s approach to estimate AVEs of non-tariff barriers on imports. Thus, we first estimate the quantity-impact of QER on exports, and then we transform quantity-impacts into price effects, using the export supply elasticities estimated by Nicita et al. (2018). WE use the AVEs into a global CGE model, GTAP, for export liberalization scenarios. We simulate 3 scenarios: i) a complete removal of QER; ii) a complete removal of export taxes; iii) the removal of both types of export restrictions. We focus on the impact of the removal of export restrictions on international and domestic prices, and agricultural trade and production. We also analyze the impact on welfare, both among countries implementing export restrictions and among importing countries. By econometrically estimating ad valorem equivalent of quantitative export restrictions we i) assess to which extent restrictions are binding and have an impact on trade; ii) compute a measure of export restriction by country, product and type of QER; and iii) provide a valuable input that can be used in CGE models.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrades, Carmen & Beckman, Jayson & Aguiar, Angel, 2019. "Estimating the impact of quantitative export restrictions on agricultural trade and prices," Conference papers 333108, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333108
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    1. Yaghoob Jafari & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Estimates of Ad Valorem Equivalents of Barriers Against Foreign Suppliers of Services in Eleven Services Sectors and 103 Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 544-573, March.
    2. Jayson Beckman & Carmen Estrades & Angel Aguiar, 2019. "Export taxes, food prices and poverty: a global CGE evaluation," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 233-247, February.
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