IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nc8191/285737.html

Forecasting Crop Yields and Condition Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Fackler, Paul L.
  • Norwood, Bailey

Abstract

A model relating crop condition indices to average yields is developed. The model is used to motivate a crop yield forecasting model, which in turn yields estimates of the time path of information flows into the commodity market. An empirical assessment of the forecasting model is undertaken.

Suggested Citation

  • Fackler, Paul L. & Norwood, Bailey, 1999. "Forecasting Crop Yields and Condition Indices," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285737, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285737
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285737
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285737/files/confp13-99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285737?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Kruse & Darnell B. Smith, 1994. "Yield Estimation Throughout the Growing Season," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 94-tr29, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Kruse, John R. & Smith, Darnell, 1994. "Yield Estimation Throughout the Growing Season," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285619, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    4. Kruse, John & Smith, Darnell, 1994. "Yield Estimation Throughout the Growing Season," Staff General Research Papers Archive 768, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. John Kruse & Darnell B. Smith, 1994. "Yield Estimation Throughout the Growing Season," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 94-tr29, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jiarui & Irwin, Scott H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2023. "Does Complexity Pay? Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yields Using Crop Condition Ratings," 2023 Conference, April 24-25, 2023, St. Louis, Missouri 379017, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(01), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Cao, An N.Q. & Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile & Heckelei, Thomas & Robe, Michel A., 2022. "County-level USDA Crop Progress and Condition data, machine learning, and commodity market surprises," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Li, Jiarui & Irwin, Scott H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2023. "Does Complexity Pay? Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yields Using Crop Condition Ratings," 2023 Conference, April 24-25, 2023, St. Louis, Missouri 379017, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    5. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Li, Jiarui & Irwin, Scott H. & Hubbs, Todd, . "Does Complexity Pay? Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yields Using Crop Condition Ratings," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 51(1).
    7. Nicholas Jorgensen & Matthew Diersen, 2014. "Forecasting Corn and Sotbean Yields with Crop Conditions," Issue Briefs 2014547, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1998. "Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 535-550, November.
    9. Kazumi Endo, 2019. "Does the stock market value corporate environmental performance? Some perils of static regression models," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1530-1538, November.
    10. David Hauner & Manmohan Kumar, 2011. "Interest rates and budget deficits revisited-evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1463-1475.
    11. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    12. Zanini, Fabio C. & Irwin, Scott H. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2000. "Estimating Farm-Level Yield Distributions For Corn And Soybeans In Illinois," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21720, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Giuseppe Croce & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2011. "Overeducation and spatial flexibility in Italian local labour markets," Working Papers in Public Economics 145, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    14. Chasco, Coro & López, Ana María & Guillain, Rachel, 2008. "The non-stationary influence of geography on the spatial agglomeration of production in the EU," MPRA Paper 10737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Davidson, Russell & Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2007. "Asymptotic and bootstrap inference for inequality and poverty measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 141-166, November.
    16. Caginalp, Gunduz & DeSantis, Mark, 2017. "Does price efficiency increase with trading volume? Evidence of nonlinearity and power laws in ETFs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 436-452.
    17. María José Ibáñez & Felipe Vásquez Lavin & Roberto D. Ponce Oliva, 2023. "Female Underperformance Hypothesis Revisited: Methodological Review and Empirical Testing," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    18. Ramses Abul Naga & Frank Cowell, 2002. "Intergenerational Mobility in Britain: Revisiting the Prediction Approach of Dearden, Machin and Reed," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 02.15, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    19. Liwu Hsu & Susan Fournier & Shuba Srinivasan, 2016. "Brand architecture strategy and firm value: how leveraging, separating, and distancing the corporate brand affects risk and returns," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 261-280, March.
    20. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Ge, Lan, 2005. "Explaining Growth in Dutch Agriculture: Prices, Public R&D, and Technological Change," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24573, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.