IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iwmicp/211313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Observed and projected climatic changes, their impacts and adaptation options for Sri Lanka: a review

Author

Listed:
  • Eriyagama, Nishadi
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir

Abstract

Climate is changing world-wide, and the science community in Sri Lanka has come up with ample evidence to suggest that the country’s climate has already changed. During 1961-1990 the country’s mean air temperature increased by 0.016 0C per year, and the mean annual rainfall decreased by 144 mm (7 %) compared to the period 1931-1960. In addition, mean annual daytime maximum and mean annual night-time minimum air temperatures increased. However, the bigger question of national importance is what Sri Lanka’s climate will look like in 50 or 100 years and how prepared is the country to face it. Apart from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections at the coarse global scale, few studies have attempted to project future climate scenarios for Sri Lanka and to identify climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, the sea level, the plantation sector, the economy and health. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are the least studied areas. This paper reviews the status of climate change research and activities in Sri Lanka with respect to future climate projections, impacts, climate change mitigation and the country’s ability to adapt, and identifies existing knowledge gaps. Messages emerging from this review suggest that Sri Lanka’s mean temperature during the North-East (December-February) and South-West (May-September) monsoon seasons will increase by about 2.9 0C and 2.5 0C, respectively, over the baseline (1961-1990), by the year 2100 with accompanying changes in the quantity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Extreme climate events are expected to increase in frequency. These changes will bring about widespread impacts on the country’s agriculture and economy For example, an increase of 0.5 0C in temperature can reduce rice yield by approximately 6%; extended dry spells and excessive cloudiness during the wet season can reduce coconut yield resulting in annual losses between $32 and $73 million to the economy. Pilot studies in the Galle District suggest that sea level rise could inundate about 20 % of the land area of Galle’s coastal District Secretariat Divisions. Adaptation measures already undertaken in the agriculture sector include the development of low water consuming rice varieties and the use of micro-irrigation technologies. Tools have been developed for predicting seasonal water availability within the Mahaweli Scheme and annual national coconut production. However, Sri Lanka is yet to undertake a comprehensive national study on the vulnerability of her water resources and agriculture to climate change. The formulation of detailed and reliable future climate scenarios for the country is therefore, urgently required.

Suggested Citation

  • Eriyagama, Nishadi & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2010. "Observed and projected climatic changes, their impacts and adaptation options for Sri Lanka: a review," IWMI Conference Proceedings 211313, International Water Management Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmicp:211313
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/211313/files/H042863.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.211313?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seo, Sung-No Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Munasinghe, Mohan, 2005. "Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 581-596, October.
    2. De Silva, C.S. & Weatherhead, E.K. & Knox, J.W. & Rodriguez-Diaz, J.A., 2007. "Predicting the impacts of climate change--A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 19-29, October.
    3. Amarasinghe, U. A. & Mutuwatta, L. & Sakthivadivel, R., 1999. "Water scarcity variations within a country: a case study of Sri Lanka," IWMI Research Reports H024897, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sujith S. Ratnayake & Michael Reid & Nicolette Larder & Harsha K. Kadupitiya & Danny Hunter & Punchi B. Dharmasena & Lalit Kumar & Benjamin Kogo & Keminda Herath & Champika S. Kariyawasam, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Farming in the Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-30, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eriyagama, Nishadi & Smakhtin, Vladimir U. & Chandrapala, Lalith & Fernando, Karin, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a review and preliminary vulnerability mapping," IWMI Research Reports 94787, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Mohamed Esham & Chris Garforth, 2013. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change: insights from a farming community in Sri Lanka," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 535-549, June.
    3. Tamiru Lemi & Fekadu Hailu, 2019. "Effects of Climate Change Variability on Agricultural Productivity," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 17(1), pages 14-20, February.
    4. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    5. Phogat, V. & Cox, J.W. & Šimůnek, J., 2018. "Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 107-117.
    6. Fahad, Shah & Jing, Wang, 2018. "Evaluation of Pakistani farmers’ willingness to pay for crop insurance using contingent valuation method: The case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 570-577.
    7. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
    9. Loum, Alieu & Fogarassy, Csaba, 2015. "The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 9(4), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    11. Attavanich, Witsanu, 2017. "Effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture: New results," MPRA Paper 118290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hutchinson, Sharon & Gomes, Charmaine & Alleyne, Dillon & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38278, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, May.
    14. Amarasinghe, Upali A., 2010. "Spatial variation of water supply and demand in Sri Lanka," IWMI Conference Proceedings 211310, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Wassie Berhanu & Fekadu Beyene, 2015. "Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-23, May.
    16. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    17. Tran Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi, 2012. "Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1387-1407, March.
    18. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Woitek, Ulrich, 2022. "Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872–1917)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    19. Wasantha Athukorala & Clevo Wilson, 2012. "Groundwater overuse and farm-level technical inefficiency: evidence from Sri Lanka," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 279, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    20. Chau Trinh Nguyen & Frank Scrimgeour, 2022. "Measuring the impact of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam: A panel Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 37-51, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iwmicp:211313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwmiclk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.