Dietary shift brings non-ignorable cross-border health and environment change

Dietary shifts are key for enhancing the sustainability of current national food systems but need to account for potential human health and environmental spillover effects as well. Employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), we examine the direct health and environmental effects of countries adopting national recommended dietary patterns on their own health and environment, as well as spillovers through food trade. We find that when countries shift to their National food based dietary guidelines it could make great improvements in human health (e.g., changes in obesity rates) but positive and negative impacts on the environment (e.g., changes in blue water use). It will have spillover effects on the health and environment of other countries through the price-income mechanism of food trade, so that the dietary shift does not necessarily result in universally beneficial outcomes for global health and the environment. In light of these findings, we explore alternative policy solutions, such as technical assistance, to enhance the potential for win-win outcomes for both health and the environment during dietary shifts.