HIV/AIDS Prevention Interventions in Uganda: A Policy Simulation

The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major health challenge in Uganda. The adult HIV/ AIDS prevalence rate had increased to 7.3 percent by 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2005/6. Consequently, understanding the programmes that can curb down the spread of the disease is both an economic and a public health priority. Previously, HIV/AIDS control programmes in Uganda have relied on the ABC strategy (Abstinence, Being Faithfull and Condon use). However, as the epidemic matured in Uganda, public health authorities have adopted additional programmes to combat the spread of HIV such as male circumcision and counselling as well as testing. This policy simulation estimates the potential costs and impact of rolling out two HIV prevention methods - Safe Male Circumcision and Voluntary Counseling and Testing- on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Using data from the recent Uganda Aids Indicator Survey 2011 as well as administrative cost data, we estimate the potential costs and impact of expanding the above two methods of HIV/AIDS control. Results from the policy simulation suggest that scalingup safe male circumcision to reach 66% of the uncircumcised males aged 15-49 years would result in averting almost 121,278 new HIV infections through 2020, resulting in an average cost per HIV infection averted of $885 and net cost savings per infection averted of US$ 6,515. On the other hand, scaling up VCT to full coverage (100%) among adults (15-49 years) would result in averting 113,813 new infections through 2020, resulting in an average cost per HIV infection averted of $948 and net savings per infection averted of US$ 6,452.